Gareji’s recent win over Kolkheti Poti fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter, while Merani Martvili’s last defeat to Telavi suggests they may struggle to contain the home side’s attack. The model projects a 49% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw, and 27% for an away win, making a home victory the favoured result. With an expected total of 3.2 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Gareji averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Merani Martvili averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals with an 83.4% probability. The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 27%.
Results analysis
The match delivered a shock: a 0-0 draw ended the home side’s brief winning streak, leaving the pre-match favourite, Home win, on the wrong side of the outcome. The model had given the home team a 49% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with an 83.4% probability, missed as no goals were scored. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a draw, contradicting the 49% home win probability. The home side, coming off a win, and the away side, coming off a defeat, both failed to secure a result, underscoring the unpredictability of the game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.35
1.75
0.83
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.08
1.77
2.23
1.92
1.92
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
2.13
1.74
2.27
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
15% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-0 ✓
5.3%
Gareji goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.6%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.8%
11%
6.8%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.4%
5.8%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
2.0%
2.7%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kolkheti Khobi
3.00
Shukura
2.16
Spaeri
1.74
Samtredia
1.70
Merani Martvili
1.65
Gareji
1.29
Merani Tbilisi
1.29
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.23
Shevardeni 1906
1.00
WIT Georgia
0.88
Rustavi
0.81
Aragvi Dusheti
0.50
Gareji is 0.35 points worse than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spaeri
2.03
Shukura
2.00
Merani Martvili
1.97
Samtredia
1.57
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.54
Gareji
1.35
Merani Tbilisi
1.32
Rustavi
1.16
WIT Georgia
1.09
Shevardeni 1906
1.00
Kolkheti Khobi
1.00
Aragvi Dusheti
0.00
Gareji is 0.61 goals worse than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Khobi
0.00
Aragvi Dusheti
0.50
Shukura
0.90
Samtredia
1.03
Gareji
1.32
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.38
Spaeri
1.42
Merani Martvili
1.71
Merani Tbilisi
1.84
Rustavi
1.84
WIT Georgia
1.94
Shevardeni 1906
2.15
Gareji is 0.39 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.54
0.25
0.50
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.64
0.30
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.81
0.77
0.92
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.83
0.91
1.00
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.81
1.50
0.33
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.86
1.20
0.40
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.35
0.96
1.46
1.00
1.23
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.30
0.91
1.36
1.00
1.25
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shukura
Spaeri
Samtredia
Merani Tbilisi
WIT Georgia
Rustavi
Dinamo Zugdidi
Shevardeni 1906
Kolkheti Khobi
Aragvi Dusheti