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Gareji vs Merani Martvili Prediction & Stats

Date: 07/11/2026
Time: 11:00
Gareji
Gareji
Vs
53%
26%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Gareji are tipped to win, a 55% chance that the home side will come away with the three points. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with a 25% probability that the total will be exactly two. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance. Gareji, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.92 conceded per game, while Merani Martvili, on the road, average 0.38 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.1%), Home +2 handicap (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.8%) and Under 4.5 (85.8%). The probabilities for the match outcomes are 55% home win, 26% draw and 20% away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili win
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W32W31W00D12L00D02L32W21WH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.252.061.501.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.281.721.002.001.641.36
vs Weaker (5)1.801.203.002.501.000.33
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W21W11D02L21W02L12L00D01L12LH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.431.201.330.531.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.801.361.251.330.381.38
vs Weaker (5)1.201.801.001.331.502.50
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
5.7%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Gareji goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
01234
07.8%5.5%3.4%1.1%0.3%
110%13%5.7%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.7%4.9%1.6%0.4%
35.5%5.5%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.3%2.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gareji is 1.12 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gareji is 0.88 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gareji is 0.12 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gareji or Draw
79.0%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Gareji + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji or Merani Martvili
73.7%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Gareji + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Merani Martvili
47.3%
Avg Implied -
53%
26%
21%
covers Draw + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Gareji, so a minus line means Gareji give that many goals of a start and Merani Martvili receive them. At -1, Gareji must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gareji win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gareji)
Gareji -2
13.0%
Draw -2
16.5%
Merani Martvili +2
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gareji)
Gareji -1
29.6%
Draw -1
23.1%
Merani Martvili +1
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gareji)
Gareji +1
79.0%
Draw +1
13.1%
Merani Martvili -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gareji)
Gareji +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.7%
Merani Martvili -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W21W00D12L00D02L11D10WH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.621.060.290.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.320.800.431.070.180.45
vs Weaker (5)1.200.602.001.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D20W00D01L01L00D01L00D00D01LH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.530.600.270.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.360.560.580.670.150.46
vs Weaker (5)0.600.800.330.331.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W12L10W00D00D00D00D21W11DH·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06A·TEL08/08H·ARA15/08H·KOL22/08A·MER29/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.870.621.001.210.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.960.920.570.931.450.91
vs Weaker (5)0.600.601.001.500.330.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L11D01L20W02L11D00D01L11DH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.670.730.270.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.800.670.670.230.92
vs Weaker (5)0.601.000.671.000.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.1%-------
Under 6.597.9%-------
Under 5.594.3%-------
Home +2 handicap92.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.6%-------
Under 4.586.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.8%-------
Home or Draw79.0%-------
Home +1 handicap79.0%-------
Over 1.576.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals75.6%-------
Home or Away73.7%-------
Away under 1.5 goals73.5%-------
Under 3.571.2%-------
Away +2 handicap70.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
GAR wins
2
Draws
1
MM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Merani Martvili · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AMerani Martvili Vs GAR1-2
27/10/23HGAR Vs Merani Martvili6-1
18/08/23AMerani Martvili Vs GAR1-4
15/05/23HGAR Vs Merani Martvili5-1
19/03/23AMerani Martvili Vs GAR0-2
29/10/22HGAR Vs Merani Martvili0-0
04/09/22AMerani Martvili Vs GAR3-2
10/05/22HGAR Vs Merani Martvili2-2

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AMerani Martvili Vs GAR1-2
22/08/26HGAR Vs Kolkheti Poti3-2
15/08/26HGAR Vs Aragvi Dusheti0-2
08/08/26ATelavi Vs GAR0-0
22/06/26HGAR Vs Odishi 19191-2
17/06/26HGAR Vs Shturmi0-0
13/06/26AGori Vs GAR1-3
30/05/26HGAR Vs Samtredia3-2
14/12/25ASpaeri Vs GAR1-2
10/12/25HGAR Vs Spaeri0-2

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMM Vs Gareji1-2
22/08/26ATelavi Vs MM1-0
15/08/26HMM Vs Odishi 19190-0
08/08/26AShturmi Vs MM2-1
22/06/26HMM Vs Gori0-2
17/06/26HMM Vs Samtredia2-1
13/06/26ASioni Vs MM2-0
29/05/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs MM1-1
06/12/25ASamtredia Vs MM1-2
29/11/25HMM Vs Saburtalo II3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.18
HomeWDLLW1.04
AwayLWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%23%33%
AVG goals2.702.772.62
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored1.281.231.33
Conceded1.421.541.29
BTTS60%54%67%
Clean Sheet20%19%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.24
HomeWWLDL1.40
AwayWDLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.722.882.56
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.081.360.80
Conceded1.641.521.76
BTTS54%64%44%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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