PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Gareji vs Merani Tbilisi Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 10:00
Final 2-1
Gareji
Gareji
Vs
67%
21%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi win✗ Miss
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W23L10W01L40W20W12L02L00D20WH·SAM28/08A·MER04/09H·WIT11/09A·MER17/09H·RUS01/10A·SPA09/10H·SHU16/10A·SAM23/10H·MER29/10A·WIT05/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.251.620.771.001.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.251.381.360.911.151.77
vs Weaker (4)1.500.503.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %39% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L21W10W04L14L32W12L01L22DA·RUS28/08H·SHU03/09A·MER10/09H·GAR17/09H·SPA01/10A·SAM09/10A·WIT15/10H·RUS22/10A·SHU30/10H·MER05/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.361.711.731.130.922.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.441.521.791.211.001.91
vs Weaker (3)0.673.331.000.000.505.00
Clean sheet %18% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.4%
1-1
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
4-0
4.5%
Gareji goals ↓
Merani Tbilisi goals →
01234
06.2%3.4%1.7%0.5%0.1%
110%10%3.7%1.0%0.2%
212%9.7%3.9%1.1%0.2%
38.5%6.9%2.8%0.7%0.2%
44.5%3.7%1.5%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Merani Tbilisi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kolkheti Khobi
3.00
Shukura
2.16
Spaeri
1.74
Samtredia
1.70
Merani Martvili
1.65
Gareji
1.29
Merani Tbilisi
1.29
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.23
Shevardeni 1906
1.00
WIT Georgia
0.88
Rustavi
0.81
Aragvi Dusheti
0.50
Gareji and Merani Tbilisi are level in average points per game (both 1.29).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Spaeri
2.03
Shukura
2.00
Merani Martvili
1.97
Samtredia
1.57
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.54
Gareji
1.35
Merani Tbilisi
1.32
Rustavi
1.16
WIT Georgia
1.09
Shevardeni 1906
1.00
Kolkheti Khobi
1.00
Aragvi Dusheti
0.00
Gareji is 0.03 goals better than Merani Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.32).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Khobi
0.00
Aragvi Dusheti
0.50
Shukura
0.90
Samtredia
1.03
Gareji
1.32
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.38
Spaeri
1.42
Merani Martvili
1.71
Merani Tbilisi
1.84
Rustavi
1.84
WIT Georgia
1.94
Shevardeni 1906
2.15
Gareji is 0.52 goals better than Merani Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.84).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W00D00D00D10W01L00D00D10WH·SAM28/08A·MER04/09H·WIT11/09A·MER17/09H·RUS01/10A·SPA09/10H·SHU16/10A·SAM23/10H·MER29/10A·WIT05/11
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.290.500.230.460.330.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.330.580.270.550.380.62
vs Weaker (4)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %64% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L21W00D04L03L21W01L00D11DA·RUS28/08H·SHU03/09A·MER10/09H·GAR17/09H·SPA01/10A·SAM09/10A·WIT15/10H·RUS22/10A·SHU30/10H·MER05/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.540.930.600.530.461.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.600.760.640.570.551.00
vs Weaker (3)0.002.330.000.000.003.50
Clean sheet %46% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W13L10W01L40W10W11D02L00D10WH·SAM28/08A·MER04/09H·WIT11/09A·MER17/09H·RUS01/10A·SPA09/10H·SHU16/10A·SAM23/10H·MER29/10A·WIT05/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.380.310.671.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.920.791.090.360.771.15
vs Weaker (4)1.500.503.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D00D10W00D11D11D11D01L11DA·RUS28/08H·SHU03/09A·MER10/09H·GAR17/09H·SPA01/10A·SAM09/10A·WIT15/10H·RUS22/10A·SHU30/10H·MER05/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.820.791.130.600.461.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.840.761.140.640.450.91
vs Weaker (3)0.671.001.000.000.501.50
Clean sheet %36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
GAR wins
1
Draws
2
MT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Merani Tbilisi · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-0
22/05/22AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR3-1
06/04/22HGAR Vs Merani Tbilisi1-1

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22AWIT Georgia Vs GAR0-2
29/10/22HGAR Vs Merani Martvili0-0
23/10/22ASamtredia Vs GAR2-0
16/10/22HGAR Vs Shukura1-2
09/10/22ASpaeri Vs GAR0-2
01/10/22HGAR Vs Rustavi4-0
17/09/22AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-0
11/09/22HGAR Vs WIT Georgia1-0
04/09/22AMerani Martvili Vs GAR3-2
28/08/22HGAR Vs Samtredia4-0

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22HMT Vs Merani Martvili2-2
30/10/22AShukura Vs MT1-0
22/10/22HMT Vs Rustavi1-2
15/10/22AWIT Georgia Vs MT2-3
09/10/22ASamtredia Vs MT4-1
01/10/22HMT Vs Spaeri0-4
17/09/22HMT Vs Gareji1-0
10/09/22AMerani Martvili Vs MT1-2
03/09/22HMT Vs Shukura0-1
28/08/22ARustavi Vs MT4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.21
HomeWWWLD1.62
AwayLLWLW0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.542.382.67
Over 1.5 %82%85%80%
Over 2.5 %43%38%47%
Over 3.5 %29%23%33%
Scored1.291.621.00
Conceded1.250.771.67
BTTS39%54%27%
Clean Sheet39%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.43
HomeLWLLD2.07
AwayLWLWL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%67%15%
AVG goals3.072.873.31
Over 1.5 %75%73%77%
Over 2.5 %64%67%62%
Over 3.5 %43%40%46%
Scored1.361.730.92
Conceded1.711.132.38
BTTS50%47%54%
Clean Sheet18%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ShukuraShukura3167
68%
2.2
6228+34
2.9
81%
68%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.9
-
2SpaeriSpaeri3154
52%
1.7
6344+19
3.5
90%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.4
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia3051
50%
1.7
4731+16
2.6
70%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3151
48%
1.6
6153+8
3.7
84%
81%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
5GarejiGareji3140
35%
1.3
4241+1
2.7
84%
48%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
6Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi3140
39%
1.3
4157-16
3.2
77%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
7WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3329
21%
0.9
3664-28
3.0
82%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
8RustaviRustavi3226
22%
0.8
3759-22
3.0
88%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.8
-
9Dinamo ZugdidiDinamo Zugdidi1316
31%
1.2
2018+2
2.9
69%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
10Shevardeni 1906Shevardeni 19061313
31%
1.0
1328-15
3.2
77%
77%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi26
100%
3.0
20+2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
12Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches