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Gareji vs Samtredia Result & Analysis

Date: 30/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 3-2
Gareji
Gareji
Vs
51%
26%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W14L31W01L33D14L04L12L02L21WA·DIN22/10H·SAM28/10A·KOL02/11H·DIN07/11H·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.571.241.821.381.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.331.631.201.871.501.33
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.501.500.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W03L21W01L11D21W32W01L12LA·MER05/10A·SAB17/10A·RUS21/10H·SIO26/10A·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.201.570.931.061.44
vs Stronger (30)1.301.201.570.931.061.44
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.1%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Gareji goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
01234
07.6%5.6%3.6%1.3%0.3%
19.7%13%6.1%2.1%0.6%
29.1%9.7%5.1%1.8%0.5%
35.2%5.5%2.9%1.0%0.3%
42.2%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gareji is 0.12 points better than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.62).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gareji is 0.50 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gareji is 0.25 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L00D22D02L02L00D01L01LA·DIN22/10H·SAM28/10A·KOL02/11H·DIN07/11H·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.630.590.760.150.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.370.630.530.730.170.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L10W01L01L20W20W00D02LA·MER05/10A·SAB17/10A·RUS21/10H·SIO26/10A·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.531.000.290.750.75
vs Stronger (30)0.870.531.000.290.750.75
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W03L30W01L11D12L02L12L01L20WA·DIN22/10H·SAM28/10A·KOL02/11H·DIN07/11H·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.930.651.061.230.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.961.000.671.131.330.83
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L11D00D10W01L12L01L10WA·MER05/10A·SAB17/10A·RUS21/10H·SIO26/10A·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.570.640.310.69
vs Stronger (30)0.430.670.570.640.310.69
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
GAR wins
1
Draws
2
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Samtredia · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/23HGAR Vs Samtredia3-1
06/12/23ASamtredia Vs GAR4-1
23/10/22ASamtredia Vs GAR2-0
28/08/22HGAR Vs Samtredia4-0
21/06/22HGAR Vs Samtredia2-0
16/04/22ASamtredia Vs GAR0-0

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/12/25ASpaeri Vs GAR1-2
10/12/25HGAR Vs Spaeri0-2
06/12/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAR2-1
30/11/25HGAR Vs Saburtalo0-4
25/11/25AGagra Vs GAR4-1
21/11/25HGAR Vs Telavi3-3
07/11/25HGAR Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-1
02/11/25AKolkheti Poti Vs GAR1-3
28/10/25HGAR Vs Samgurali1-4
22/10/25ADinamo Batumi Vs GAR1-4

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0
25/11/25HSAM Vs Gonio3-2
21/11/25ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SAM1-2
08/11/25HSAM Vs Spaeri1-1
03/11/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SAM1-0
26/10/25HSAM Vs Sioni2-1
21/10/25ARustavi Vs SAM3-0
17/10/25ASaburtalo II Vs SAM0-1
05/10/25AMerani Martvili Vs SAM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.24
HomeLLDLL1.12
AwayWWLLW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%35%
AVG goals2.902.962.85
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %44%50%38%
Scored1.481.501.46
Conceded1.421.461.38
BTTS64%54%73%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.18
HomeDWDWL1.40
AwayWLLWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.442.282.60
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %46%36%56%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.181.281.08
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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