Gareji’s recent win over Kolkheti Poti fuels optimism for a high-scoring outing, while Shturmi’s return from a defeat to Samtredia suggests a cautious approach. The model projects a 57% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw, and 20% for an away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.2 goals, the most likely total is three, though the model’s single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Gareji averages one goal scored and two conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Shturmi concedes 1.8 and scores one on the road. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 84% probability, and the edge percentage is not provided. The final probabilities are: 57% home win, 23% draw, 20% away win.
Results analysis
The draw stunned everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Gareji, failed to deliver a win. The model had picked a home victory with a 57% probability, but the match ended 0-0, a result that the model’s prediction missed. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, with an 84% chance, also missed. Gareji were coming off a win and had a recent run of WLDLD, while Shturmi, fresh from a defeat, were on LWWDD. The final score of 0-0 was a clear upset, showing the model’s call was wrong and its over-goal selection did not hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win✗ Miss
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.44
1.94
1.50
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.55
1.00
2.00
1.30
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.38
1.75
2.75
1.75
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Gareji goals ↓
Shturmi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.7%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.3%
11%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
5.7%
6.7%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.9%
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Shturmi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.43
Odishi 1919
1.57
Gareji
1.57
Aragvi Dusheti
1.57
Sioni
1.43
Samtredia
1.43
Shturmi
1.14
Gori
1.00
Merani Martvili
0.71
Kolkheti Poti
0.71
Gareji is 0.43 points better than Shturmi in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
1.86
Gareji
1.43
Aragvi Dusheti
1.43
Sioni
1.29
Gori
1.14
Telavi
1.00
Odishi 1919
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Merani Martvili
0.57
Shturmi
0.57
Gareji is 0.86 goals better than Shturmi in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.14
Shturmi
0.86
Odishi 1919
0.86
Gori
1.14
Merani Martvili
1.29
Gareji
1.29
Kolkheti Poti
1.29
Aragvi Dusheti
1.29
Sioni
1.43
Samtredia
1.71
Gareji is 0.43 goals worse than Shturmi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.69
0.81
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.73
0.33
1.08
0.10
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.50
1.75
0.00
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
0.75
1.12
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.82
0.67
0.92
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
1.25
1.00
1.75
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Samtredia
Sioni
Gori
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili