Gareji are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a home win, with a 45% chance against a 26% draw and 29% away win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, but the most probable total is two, a 23% chance, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability. Gareji’s home form shows they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.08 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Sioni, on the road, average 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded to comparable sides. The model’s selections highlight a strong likelihood of a low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Under 5.5 (91.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (81.6%), Home +2 handicap (87.1%), and Under 6.5 and 7.5 remain the safest picks. The recent form notes that both sides come off a win, adding a touch of confidence to the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.25
2.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.72
1.00
2.00
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
3.00
2.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.47
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.30
1.73
1.45
1.75
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.50
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
Gareji goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.2%
12%
7.4%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.2%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.8%
5.1%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gareji is 0.12 points better than Sioni in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gareji is 0.12 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gareji is 0.12 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gareji or Draw
70.3%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Gareji + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji or Sioni
73.9%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Gareji + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sioni
55.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Draw + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gareji, so a minus line means Gareji give that many goals of a start and Sioni receive them. At -1, Gareji must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gareji win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gareji)
Gareji -2
10.0%
Draw -2
13.7%
Sioni +2
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gareji)
Gareji -1
23.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
Sioni +1
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gareji)
Gareji +1
70.3%
Draw +1
16.2%
Sioni -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gareji)
Gareji +2
86.5%
Draw +2
8.8%
Sioni -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.62
1.06
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.80
0.43
1.07
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.6%
Under 0.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.0%
Under 1.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.62
1.00
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.92
0.57
0.93
1.45
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.00
0.82
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili