The model favours an away win, with a 50 % chance for BFA, 28 % for a draw and 21 % for Garliava. The expected total is 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal match; the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4 %. Garliava, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded, while BFA, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 2.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Under 5.5 (96.3 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Away +2 handicap (92.4 %) and Under 4.5 (90.1 %). Garliava have endured five straight defeats, most recently losing 0-2 to Be1 NFA, whereas BFA come off a 2-0 win over Neptūnas Klaipėda.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Garliava win
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.87
1.00
1.80
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (24)
1.17
1.88
1.17
1.83
1.17
1.92
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.33
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.20
1.73
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
1.27
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.44
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.25
2.00
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
13.1%
0-2
10.8%
0-0
10.7%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
6.8%
0-3
5.4%
2-1
5.1%
Garliava goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
13%
11%
5.4%
2.1%
1
6.8%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
3.4%
5.1%
3.9%
1.9%
0.7%
3
1.0%
1.4%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Garliava goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Garliava is 2.00 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Garliava is 1.98 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (0.17 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Garliava is 0.50 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Garliava or Draw
48.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Garliava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava or BFA
71.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Garliava + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BFA
80.2%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Draw + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Garliava over/under 0.5
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Garliava, so a minus line means Garliava give that many goals of a start and BFA receive them. At -1, Garliava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Garliava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Garliava)
Garliava -2
1.6%
Draw -2
5.1%
BFA +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Garliava)
Garliava -1
6.7%
Draw -1
13.1%
BFA +1
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Garliava)
Garliava +1
48.3%
Draw +1
24.4%
BFA -1
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Garliava)
Garliava +2
72.7%
Draw +2
16.2%
BFA -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.83
0.42
0.83
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.17
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.00
0.25
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
Under 1.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.04
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.08
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
0.73
1.00
0.83
1.22
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
Under 0.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.5%
Under 1.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Garliava and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas