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Garliava vs Dainava Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Garliava
Garliava
Vs
9%
23%
68%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dainava
Dainava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 71% chance to Dainava’s triumph. This preference stems from Garliava’s weak home form against stronger opponents, where they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while Dainava’s away record against this tier is more resilient. The expected total of 2.5 goals is modest, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 16% probability. Home win stands at 8%, draw 21%, away win 71%. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (98.4%), Away +2 handicap (98.1%), Under 5.5 (96.0%), Draw or Away (91.9%), and Away +1 handicap (91.9%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Garliava win
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava win
67.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L30W30W12L01L01L13L01L02L01LH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.871.001.801.201.93
vs Stronger (24)1.171.881.171.831.171.92
vs Similar (6)0.831.830.331.671.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DainavaDainava

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-771W20W11D31W11D21W00D11D01L23LA·VIL28/04A·KLA19/05H·TRA24/06H·TRA28/07H·TAU02/08H·BAB08/08H·BFA15/08H·ATM22/08H·ŽAL28/08A·MIN01/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.700.751.621.431.79
vs Stronger (15)1.131.530.571.711.621.38
vs Similar (12)0.922.170.672.001.172.33
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.330.67--
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%020%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.4%
Under 2.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.8%
No
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.7%
0-2
15.5%
1-1
10.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-3
9.6%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
5.3%
0-4
4.5%
Garliava goals ↓
Dainava goals →
01234
09.9%16%15%9.6%4.5%
14.0%10%8.6%5.3%2.5%
21.4%2.6%2.4%1.5%0.7%
30.3%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.1%
40.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Garliava goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Garliava is 1.50 points worse than Dainava in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Garliava is 1.00 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals scored per game (0.17 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Garliava is 0.67 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Garliava or Draw
32.1%
Avg Implied -
9%
23%
68%
covers Garliava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava or Dainava
77.3%
Avg Implied -
9%
23%
68%
covers Garliava + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dainava
90.6%
Avg Implied -
9%
23%
68%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Garliava over/under 0.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Garliava, so a minus line means Garliava give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Garliava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Garliava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Garliava)
Garliava -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.9%
Dainava +2
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Garliava)
Garliava -1
2.3%
Draw -1
7.1%
Dainava +1
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Garliava)
Garliava +1
32.1%
Draw +1
25.9%
Dainava -1
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Garliava)
Garliava +2
58.0%
Draw +2
21.5%
Dainava -2
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W11D00D01L10W00D02L01LH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.400.870.730.87
vs Stronger (24)0.620.830.420.830.830.83
vs Similar (6)0.331.000.331.000.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DainavaDainava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D21W10W21W00D11D00D10WA·VIL28/04A·KLA19/05H·TRA24/06H·TRA28/07H·TAU02/08H·BAB08/08H·BFA15/08H·ATM22/08H·ŽAL28/08A·MIN01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.440.750.500.50
vs Stronger (15)0.470.670.431.000.500.38
vs Similar (12)0.330.580.170.500.500.67
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.67--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W20W01L01L00D03L01L00D00DH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.600.930.471.07
vs Stronger (24)0.541.040.751.000.331.08
vs Similar (6)0.500.830.000.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DainavaDainava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W10W00D10W01L00D00D00D01L13LA·VIL28/04A·KLA19/05H·TRA24/06H·TRA28/07H·TAU02/08H·BAB08/08H·BFA15/08H·ATM22/08H·ŽAL28/08A·MIN01/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.070.310.880.931.29
vs Stronger (15)0.670.870.140.711.121.00
vs Similar (12)0.581.580.501.500.671.67
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.330.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 3.5 goals99.7%-------
Under 7.599.7%-------
Under 6.598.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals98.1%-------
Away +2 handicap97.7%-------
Under 5.596.4%-------
Draw or Away90.6%-------
Away +1 handicap90.6%-------
Under 4.590.2%-------
Home under 1.5 goals89.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals88.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals84.4%-------
Under 3.577.6%-------
Home or Away77.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals71.5%-------
Over 1.570.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Garliava and Dainava have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Dainava have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Dainava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
GAR wins
0
Draws
2
DAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Garliava vs Dainava · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/22ADainava Vs GAR2-0
26/03/22HGAR Vs Dainava1-2

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HGAR Vs Babrungas0-1
21/08/26ABe1 NFA Vs GAR2-0
15/08/26HGAR Vs Tauras0-1
07/08/26AHegelmann II Vs GAR3-1
01/08/26HGAR Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
25/07/26AJonava Vs GAR1-0
19/05/26ABFA Vs GAR2-1
29/04/26AAlternatyvus FK Vs GAR0-3
12/04/26ASvyturys Vs GAR0-3
27/05/25HGAR Vs Panevėžys0-3

DainavaDainava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26AMinija Vs DAI3-2
28/08/26HDAI Vs Žalgiris II0-1
22/08/26HDAI Vs Atmosfera1-1
15/08/26HDAI Vs BFA0-0
08/08/26HDAI Vs Babrungas2-1
02/08/26HDAI Vs Tauras1-1
28/07/26HDAI Vs Transinvest 23-1
24/06/26HDAI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-1
19/05/26AKlaipėdos FM Vs DAI0-2
28/04/26AViltis Vilnius Vs DAI1-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.94
HomeWLLLL1.04
AwayWLLLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals2.602.442.76
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.081.001.16
Conceded1.521.441.60
BTTS38%32%44%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Dainava
Dainava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL0.82
HomeDWDDL0.78
AwayLDWWL0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%15%22%
AVG goals2.882.783.00
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %32%30%35%
Scored1.000.851.17
Conceded1.881.931.83
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet12%4%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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