Tauras is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win. This is largely due to Tauras' strong away form against weaker opponents, having scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded just 0.89 goals per match.
Garliava, on the other hand, has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.23 goals and conceding 1.62 goals per match against stronger opponents. The model predicts a 62% chance of an away win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 14% chance of a home win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 0-2 in favour of Tauras. However, the model suggests a 76.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals, and a 71.4% chance of Under 3.5 goals, with a 10% edge in favour of the latter.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which is also the most likely score. Additionally, the model suggests the Under 3.5 goals as a selection, with a 71.4% probability.
Results analysis
The away team Tauras secured a 0-1 win, extending their run of inconsistent form. The model's call for an away win was correct. The away team was the pre-match favourite with a 63% probability of winning. The model's selection of an away win proved accurate.
The suggested picks fared mixed results. The model's selection of "Under 3.5" goals hit, with a 71.4% probability, while the pick of "Over 1.5" goals missed, with a 76.2% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Garliava win✗ Miss
14.0%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.79
Edge
-18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.80
1xBet
2.79
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.52
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
Tauras win✓ Hit
62.5%
Avg Implied 42.0% · @ 2.15
Edge
+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.15
Dafabet
2.13
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.87
1.07
1.86
1.25
1.88
vs Stronger (24)
1.25
1.88
1.27
1.91
1.23
1.85
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.33
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.44
1.38
1.79
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
2.00
1.25
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.75
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.92
1.88
0.88
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.17-4.0%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 4.75+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.58-7.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 2.22+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Under
1xBet
2.38
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
@ 2.42-9.8%
Under 3.5
71.4%
@ 1.51+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.38
Unibet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
@ 1.47-10.8%
No
52.2%
@ 2.07+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
No
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
1.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.2%@ 10.67+7.4%
0-1 ✓
11.8%@ 9.33+6.3%
1-1
11.2%@ 6.67+3.6%
1-2
9.7%@ 8.33+3.6%
0-3
7.7%@ 17.67+4.9%
0-0
7.7%@ 14.33+4.2%
1-3
6.2%@ 13.67+2.5%
1-0
4.3%@ 10.67-0.4%
Garliava goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
12%
12%
7.7%
3.7%
1
4.3%
11%
9.7%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.1%
4.1%
3.9%
2.5%
1.2%
3
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Garliava goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Garliava is 1.50 points worse than Tauras in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Garliava is 1.33 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (0.17 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Garliava is 0.17 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.43
0.93
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
0.79
0.45
0.91
0.85
0.69
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.44
0.88
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.62
0.25
1.25
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.64
0.93
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
1.08
0.82
1.00
0.38
1.15
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.38
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.17
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.4%
1.51
1xBet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.49
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Garliava and Tauras have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Tauras have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Tauras have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas