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Garliava vs Žalgiris II Prediction & Stats

Date: 23/10/2026
Time: 16:30
Garliava
Garliava
Vs
10%
21%
69%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Garliava’s recent five matches ended in a losing streak, while Žalgiris II have won four of their last five, giving the visitors a clear edge. The model therefore picks an away win, reflecting Žalgiris II’s stronger away form (1.33 goals scored, 2.67 conceded) against a home side that struggles against stronger opponents (1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded). The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 for Žalgiris II at 14%. Home win probability is 10%, draw 21%, and away win 70%. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away +2 handicap (97.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Draw or Away (90.3%), and Away +1 handicap (90.3%). These picks highlight the low likelihood of a high-scoring home victory and the confidence that Žalgiris II will secure the win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Garliava win
10.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II win
68.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L30W30W12L01L01L13L01L02L01LH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.871.001.801.201.93
vs Stronger (24)1.171.881.171.831.171.92
vs Similar (6)0.831.830.331.671.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D14L20W10W11D21W41W43W10WH·MIN24/10H·JON31/10A·TRA09/11A·HEG21/07H·MIN28/07A·EKR01/08H·KAU10/08A·FA 14/08H·TRA25/08A·DAI28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.471.871.531.801.40
vs Stronger (7)1.431.711.251.501.672.00
vs Similar (16)2.001.002.001.292.000.78
vs Weaker (7)1.862.292.252.001.332.67
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.8%
0-1
12.5%
1-1
9.9%
0-3
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
7.4%
1-3
6.4%
0-4
4.9%
Garliava goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
01234
07.4%13%14%9.5%4.9%
13.5%9.9%9.3%6.4%3.3%
21.5%3.0%3.1%2.1%1.1%
30.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.2%
40.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Garliava goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Garliava is 2.71 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Garliava is 1.98 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (0.17 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Garliava is 0.64 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Garliava or Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Garliava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava or Žalgiris II
79.0%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Garliava + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Žalgiris II
89.8%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
69%
covers Draw + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Garliava over/under 0.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
87.2%
Under
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
60.9%
Under
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Garliava, so a minus line means Garliava give that many goals of a start and Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Garliava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Garliava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Garliava)
Garliava -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.3%
Žalgiris II +2
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Garliava)
Garliava -1
2.8%
Draw -1
7.3%
Žalgiris II +1
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Garliava)
Garliava +1
31.2%
Draw +1
24.2%
Žalgiris II -1
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Garliava)
Garliava +2
55.4%
Draw +2
21.4%
Žalgiris II -2
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W11D00D01L10W00D02L01LH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.400.870.730.87
vs Stronger (24)0.620.830.420.830.830.83
vs Similar (6)0.331.000.331.000.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D13L10W10W01L01L10W31W00DH·MIN24/10H·JON31/10A·TRA09/11A·HEG21/07H·MIN28/07A·EKR01/08H·KAU10/08A·FA 14/08H·TRA25/08A·DAI28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.870.730.870.87
vs Stronger (7)0.861.000.750.501.001.67
vs Similar (16)0.940.500.860.711.000.33
vs Weaker (7)0.711.291.001.000.331.67
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W20W01L01L00D03L01L00D00DH·PAN27/05A·SVY12/04A·ALT29/04A·BFA19/05A·JON25/07H·NEP01/08A·HEG07/08H·TAU15/08A·BE121/08H·BAB29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.600.930.471.07
vs Stronger (24)0.541.040.751.000.331.08
vs Similar (6)0.500.830.000.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L10W00D10W20W31W12L10WH·MIN24/10H·JON31/10A·TRA09/11A·HEG21/07H·MIN28/07A·EKR01/08H·KAU10/08A·FA 14/08H·TRA25/08A·DAI28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.000.800.930.53
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.501.000.670.33
vs Similar (16)1.060.501.140.571.000.44
vs Weaker (7)1.141.001.251.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 3.5 goals99.5%-------
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.8%-------
Away +2 handicap97.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals96.9%-------
Under 5.594.1%-------
Draw or Away89.8%-------
Away +1 handicap89.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals87.2%-------
Under 4.585.9%-------
Home under 1.5 goals85.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals84.7%-------
Home or Away79.0%-------
Over 1.576.5%-------
Under 3.570.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Garliava and Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Garliava and Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
GAR wins
1
Draws
2
ŽI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Garliava vs Žalgiris II · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23AŽalgiris II Vs GAR1-1
10/06/23HGAR Vs Žalgiris II1-0
22/10/22AŽalgiris II Vs GAR1-0
17/06/22HGAR Vs Žalgiris II1-3

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HGAR Vs Babrungas0-1
21/08/26ABe1 NFA Vs GAR2-0
15/08/26HGAR Vs Tauras0-1
07/08/26AHegelmann II Vs GAR3-1
01/08/26HGAR Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
25/07/26AJonava Vs GAR1-0
19/05/26ABFA Vs GAR2-1
29/04/26AAlternatyvus FK Vs GAR0-3
12/04/26ASvyturys Vs GAR0-3
27/05/25HGAR Vs Panevėžys0-3

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ADainava Vs ŽI0-1
25/08/26HŽI Vs Transinvest 24-3
14/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs ŽI1-4
10/08/26HŽI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-1
01/08/26AEkranas Vs ŽI1-1
28/07/26HŽI Vs Minija1-0
21/07/26AHegelmann II Vs ŽI0-2
09/11/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs ŽI4-1
31/10/25HŽI Vs Jonava0-0
24/10/25HŽI Vs Minija0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.94
HomeWLLLL1.04
AwayWLLLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals2.602.442.76
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.081.001.16
Conceded1.521.441.60
BTTS38%32%44%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.54
HomeLDWWW1.59
AwayLWDWW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%39%
AVG goals3.503.783.17
Over 1.5 %84%78%91%
Over 2.5 %60%67%52%
Over 3.5 %44%48%39%
Scored1.882.041.70
Conceded1.621.741.48
BTTS68%70%65%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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