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Gateshead vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 25/11/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Gateshead
Gateshead
Vs
52%
26%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: J Westgate

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gateshead win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.90
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.63
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.51
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W40W13L21W02L22D04L60W20W21WH·MAI23/09A·OXF26/09A·BRO30/09H·WEA03/10H·ALT07/10A·ROC24/10H·FYL28/10H·DOR11/11A·BAR18/11A·SOL21/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.102.251.122.291.07
vs Stronger (13)2.311.082.331.002.251.25
vs Similar (15)2.331.202.171.502.441.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L11D22D20W20W50W30W11D02L21WH·FYL23/09A·ALD26/09A·ROC30/09H·OXF03/10A·WOK07/10H·SOL21/10H·EBB24/10A·BOR28/10A·ALT11/11H·CHE18/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.002.290.711.061.25
vs Stronger (10)1.401.001.800.801.001.20
vs Similar (18)1.830.942.750.501.101.30
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.66-0.7%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.11+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
Gateshead goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
06.6%5.1%3.5%1.3%0.4%
18.7%12%6.2%2.3%0.6%
28.7%9.8%5.5%2.0%0.6%
35.1%5.8%3.2%1.2%0.3%
42.3%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gateshead goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Gateshead and Southend are level in average points per game (both 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Southend
1.52
Hartlepool
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Gateshead is 0.39 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Gateshead is 0.41 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.98).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Gateshead is 5.9 percentage points better than Southend in terms of average possession (61% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GatesheadGateshead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D00D00D02L02L30W00D20WH·MAI23/09A·OXF26/09A·BRO30/09H·WEA03/10H·ALT07/10A·ROC24/10H·FYL28/10H·DOR11/11A·BAR18/11A·SOL21/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.331.120.250.860.43
vs Stronger (13)1.080.151.330.220.500.00
vs Similar (15)0.930.530.670.331.110.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L12L20W10W20W10W10W00D01LH·FYL23/09A·ALD26/09A·ROC30/09H·OXF03/10A·WOK07/10H·SOL21/10H·EBB24/10A·BOR28/10A·ALT11/11H·CHE18/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.790.290.440.50
vs Stronger (10)0.300.500.000.400.600.60
vs Similar (18)0.780.331.250.250.400.40
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GatesheadGateshead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W30W13L21W02L20W02L30W20W01LH·MAI23/09A·OXF26/09A·BRO30/09H·WEA03/10H·ALT07/10A·ROC24/10H·FYL28/10H·DOR11/11A·BAR18/11A·SOL21/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.771.120.881.430.64
vs Stronger (13)1.230.921.000.781.751.25
vs Similar (15)1.400.671.501.171.330.33
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W00D10W30W20W01L02L20WH·FYL23/09A·ALD26/09A·ROC30/09H·OXF03/10A·WOK07/10H·SOL21/10H·EBB24/10A·BOR28/10A·ALT11/11H·CHE18/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.500.430.620.75
vs Stronger (10)1.100.501.800.400.400.60
vs Similar (18)1.060.611.500.250.700.90
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards91.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards80.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
GAT wins
0
Draws
1
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gateshead vs Southend · H/A from GAT
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23ASouthend Vs GAT1-0
19/11/22HGAT Vs Southend3-1

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/23ASolihull Vs GAT1-2
18/11/23ABarnet Vs GAT0-2
11/11/23HGAT Vs Dorking6-0
28/10/23HGAT Vs Fylde0-4
24/10/23ARochdale Vs GAT2-2
07/10/23HGAT Vs Altrincham0-2
03/10/23HGAT Vs Wealdstone2-1
30/09/23ABromley Vs GAT3-1
26/09/23AOxford City Vs GAT0-4
23/09/23HGAT Vs Maidenhead3-0

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/11/23HSOU Vs Chesterfield2-1
11/11/23AAltrincham Vs SOU2-0
28/10/23ABoreham Wood Vs SOU1-1
24/10/23HSOU Vs Ebbsfleet3-0
21/10/23HSOU Vs Solihull5-0
07/10/23AWoking Vs SOU0-2
03/10/23HSOU Vs Oxford City2-0
30/09/23ARochdale Vs SOU2-2
26/09/23AAldershot Vs SOU1-1
23/09/23HSOU Vs Fylde1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gateshead
Gateshead
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.64
HomeWWLLW1.62
AwayWLDWW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals3.103.123.08
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %66%75%58%
Over 3.5 %38%42%35%
Scored1.881.881.88
Conceded1.221.251.19
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners---
Cards3.963.384.50
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.54
HomeLWWWW2.00
AwayDDWDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%28%
AVG goals2.562.802.32
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %50%60%40%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.461.921.00
Conceded1.100.881.32
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet34%48%20%
Corners---
Cards3.703.523.88

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead
4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red
4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde
4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet
4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster
4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking
4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City
4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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