Gaziantep FK enter the match after a win, while Rizespor come off a defeat, making the game feel finely balanced. The model favours a home win, giving Gaziantep a 37 % chance, a draw 27 %, and Rizespor 36 %. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9 % probability. Gaziantep’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Rizespor’s away form yields 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 % with a 6 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.9 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3 % with a 5 % edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.0 % with a 5 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset arrived as Gaziantep FK, the pre-match favourite with a 36% chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-2 to Rizespor. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The match was a quiet affair, with the total goals tally at two, matching the most likely score of 1-1, 1-2 or 2-1, and the overall expected total of 2.8. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%). Gaziantep’s home form had been shaky, coming off a defeat, while Rizespor entered on a win, setting the stage for the surprise outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gaziantep FK win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.85
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.13
Betano
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.90
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.48
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
1xBet
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Rizespor win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.32
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.58
SBO
2.52
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gaziantep FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.70
1.07
1.43
1.56
1.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.44
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.38
1.30
1.00
1.82
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.67
2.13
1.47
1.07
1.87
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.50
1.33
3.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.36
2.33
1.00
1.10
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
@ 1.23+2.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
@ 3.90-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.16
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.79+0.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
@ 2.02-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
@ 2.91-0.6%
Under 3.5
68.5%
@ 1.38+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Betano
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Superbet
2.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
@ 1.62+1.2%
No
41.5%
@ 2.17-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.34+5.9%
1-2 ✓
8.4%@ 8.49+3.1%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.54+3.6%
0-1
7.2%@ 8.46+1.8%
1-0
7.1%@ 9.52+2.4%
0-0
7.1%@ 11.43+3.1%
0-2
5.9%@ 11.47+2.0%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.68+2.0%
Gaziantep FK goals ↓
Rizespor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.2%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.1%
13%
8.4%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.3%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.8%
3.9%
2.8%
1.3%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gaziantep FK goals (down), columns = Rizespor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Gaziantep FK is 0.12 points worse than Rizespor in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Gaziantep FK is 0.09 goals worse than Rizespor in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Gaziantep FK is 0.18 goals worse than Rizespor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Gaziantep FK is 0.1 percentage points worse than Rizespor in terms of average possession (50% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gaziantep FK
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 15.8 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rizespor
For 5.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gaziantep FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.6
9.3
5.0
5.4
4.6
29.1
28.6
29.6
vs Stronger (15)
10.5
11.1
9.9
5.4
4.9
6.0
28.6
26.9
30.3
vs Similar (35)
9.7
10.3
9.0
4.8
5.6
4.1
29.4
29.4
29.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
55%
41%
72%
80%
64%
91%
86%
95%
% under line
52%
45%
59%
28%
20%
36%
9%
14%
5%
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.1
3.7
3.4
4.0
25.8
26.3
25.4
vs Stronger (13)
9.8
9.6
9.9
4.3
4.0
4.5
23.0
23.4
22.7
vs Similar (36)
9.0
9.2
8.7
3.5
3.3
3.7
27.2
27.8
26.7
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
50%
55%
45%
50%
44%
56%
82%
86%
77%
% under line
50%
45%
55%
50%
56%
44%
18%
14%
23%
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.7
Konyaspor
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Çorum FK
9.2
Amed
9.0
Eyüpspor
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.8
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.2
Alanyaspor
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.7
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Konyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.1
Çorum FK
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
5.0
Alanyaspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.7
Samsunspor
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
29.0
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Kocaelispor
27.3
Alanyaspor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.7
Trabzonspor
26.4
Eyüpspor
26.4
Rizespor
26.1
Samsunspor
25.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Beşiktaş
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.1
Konyaspor
24.9
Galatasaray
23.8
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
23.0
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.86-4.4%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.87+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.9%
Under 3.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gaziantep FK or Draw✗ Miss
65.7%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.57
Edge
+5.9%
36%
27%
36%
covers Gaziantep FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Gaziantep FK or Rizespor✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.6%
36%
27%
36%
covers Gaziantep FK + Rizespor
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Draw or Rizespor✓ Hit
62.6%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.40
Edge
-4.3%
36%
27%
36%
covers Draw + Rizespor
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.50
SBO
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gaziantep FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.8%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Under
25.2%
@ 3.33-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.43
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Gaziantep FK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.0%
@ 2.44+1.6%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.52-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Gaziantep FK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.1%
@ 5.64-0.4%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.11+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Gaziantep FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 12.50-2.5%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Rizespor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
@ 1.22-3.4%
Under
27.0%
@ 3.94+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Rizespor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.7%
@ 2.10-6.7%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.68+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Rizespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.52-6.1%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.17+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Pinnacle
4.53
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Rizespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 10.25-4.8%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gaziantep FK, so a minus line means Gaziantep FK give that many goals of a start and Rizespor receive them. At -1, Gaziantep FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gaziantep FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gaziantep FK)Actual: Rizespor
Gaziantep FK -2
6.5%
@ 11.52-1.3%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 7.30-0.9%
Rizespor +2
82.2%
@ 1.12+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Away
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Gaziantep FK)Actual: Rizespor
Gaziantep FK -1
17.8%
@ 5.59+1.7%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 4.42-0.8%
Rizespor +1
62.6%
@ 1.41-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
4.75
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Gaziantep FK)Actual: Draw
Gaziantep FK +1
65.7%
@ 1.55+8.1%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 4.04-3.6%
Rizespor -1
15.8%
@ 4.41-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Handicap +2 (Gaziantep FK)Actual: Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK +2
84.2%
@ 1.17+8.3%
Draw +2
10.3%
@ 6.20-4.0%
Rizespor -2
5.5%
@ 9.12-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Draw
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gaziantep FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.50
0.86
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.22
0.25
1.75
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
0.60
0.50
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
1.07
0.40
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
1.33
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.64
1.00
0.42
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.6%
@ 1.33-2.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
@ 3.13+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.58-3.3%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.46+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.67
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.33-3.9%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gaziantep FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.0%
@ 2.08+2.2%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.68-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Gaziantep FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 6.67-2.1%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Gaziantep FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.75-3.4%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Rizespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.1%
@ 1.91-7.4%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.80+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Rizespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.3%
@ 5.78-5.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.10+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Rizespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 14.62-4.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gaziantep FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.57
0.57
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.86
0.70
0.50
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.07
1.07
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.88
0.00
3.00
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.73
1.33
0.58
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.20-0.9%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 4.15+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 1.97-4.1%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.76+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 4.07-5.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.20+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
William Hil
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gaziantep FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.77+2.6%
Under
45.0%
@ 1.95-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Gaziantep FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 4.77-0.4%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.15+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.65
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Gaziantep FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 12.12-3.9%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Rizespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.7%
@ 1.63-9.3%
Under
52.3%
@ 2.16+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
Rizespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 4.18-8.1%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.19+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.25
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Rizespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 10.38-5.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.19
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.14
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
1.11
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.20
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
1.31
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.28
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gaziantep FK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Deian Sorescu67%
Myenty Abena0%
Alexandru Maxim0%
Florin Ştefan0%
Luis Pérez0%
Kacper Kozłowski0%
Ulrich Meleke0%
Kacper Tobiasz0%
Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myenty Abena33%
Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo33%
Alexandru Maxim0%
Florin Ştefan0%
Deian Sorescu0%
Luis Pérez0%
Kacper Kozłowski0%
Ulrich Meleke0%
Kacper Tobiasz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Myenty Abena0%
Alexandru Maxim0%
Florin Ştefan0%
Deian Sorescu0%
Luis Pérez0%
Kacper Kozłowski0%
Ulrich Meleke0%
Kacper Tobiasz0%
Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ulrich Meleke33%
Myenty Abena0%
Alexandru Maxim0%
Florin Ştefan0%
Deian Sorescu0%
Luis Pérez0%
Kacper Kozłowski0%
Kacper Tobiasz0%
Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo0%
Rizespor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ali Sowe33%
Qazim Laci33%
Emrecan Bulut33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Attila Mocsi0%
Modibo Sagnan0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Mithat Pala0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Attila Mocsi33%
Ali Sowe33%
Modibo Sagnan33%
Qazim Laci33%
Dal Varešanović33%
Mithat Pala33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Emrecan Bulut0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mithat Pala33%
Emrecan Bulut33%
Ahmed Kutucu0%
Attila Mocsi0%
Ali Sowe0%
Modibo Sagnan0%
Qazim Laci0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmed Kutucu33%
Modibo Sagnan33%
Attila Mocsi0%
Ali Sowe0%
Qazim Laci0%
Taylan Antalyalı0%
Yahia Fofana0%
Dal Varešanović0%
Mithat Pala0%
Ibrahim Olawoyin0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Emrecan Bulut0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Gaziantep FK's squad is €16m less valuable than Rizespor's (€28m vs €44m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Gaziantep FK's attack is €1m more valuable than Rizespor's (€14m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Gaziantep FK's midfield is €1m more valuable than Rizespor's (€8m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Gaziantep FK's defence is €19m less valuable than Rizespor's (€6m vs €25m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Amed
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor