Getafe vs Alaves Result & Analysis

Getafe and Alaves face each other in a tightly contested La Liga fixture, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. The draw probability sits at 31% and the away side’s chance of triumph is 28%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modest scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4% probability. Getafe, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.71 conceded, while Alaves, on the road, averages 1.09 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 96.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 87.2%, Over 23.5 fouls at 83.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.0%, Over 25.5 fouls at 72.5% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.1%, with Under 3.5 fouls at 80.6% expected to miss. Each pick is listed with its exact probability.

The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Getafe secured a 4-1 victory over Alaves, extending their recent run after two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 41% probability and was indeed correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the final result matched the model’s expectation. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 96.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 91.9%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 87.2%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 83.9%, Under 3.5 missed at 80.6%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 73.0%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 72.5%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.1%. The model’s choices largely came in, confirming its accuracy for this encounter.