Gillingham are favoured to win, with a 42 % chance of a home victory, 31 % for a draw and 27 % for Northampton. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline with a 14.4 % probability. Gillingham, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded, while Northampton, on the road, average 0.55 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 % with a 5 % edge), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 % with a 2 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.1 % with a 3 % edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.8 % with a 3 % edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Gillingham, did not materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extends both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The model’s call was wrong, with a 42% probability for a home victory. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely outcome, yet the model’s prediction of a home win fell short. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.1%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.9%, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.8%. All selections performed as expected.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gillingham win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.60
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.72
Dafabet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Marathonbet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Draw✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.23
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Northampton win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.63
Edge
-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.70
Dafabet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.93
1.06
2.12
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.50
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.85
1.14
1.86
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.87
0.93
1.57
0.50
2.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
1.87
0.92
1.58
0.45
2.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Under 1.5
32.2%
@ 3.27+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.44
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.9%
@ 1.99-7.3%
Under 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.78+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
@ 3.46-7.1%
Under 3.5
80.3%
@ 1.27+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
@ 1.74-6.3%
No
53.0%
@ 1.98+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
No
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%@ 5.89+6.8%
1-0
11.8%@ 7.77+6.1%
0-0
11.5%@ 8.81+6.5%
0-1
8.9%@ 7.94+3.3%
2-0
8.4%@ 11.97+4.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.14+3.5%
1-2
6.5%@ 9.19+1.7%
0-2
5.1%@ 12.16+1.4%
Gillingham goals ↓
Northampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.4%
8.4%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.6%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gillingham goals (down), columns = Northampton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Gillingham is 0.25 points worse than Northampton in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Gillingham is 0.16 goals worse than Northampton in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Gillingham is 0.30 goals worse than Northampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gillingham
For 3.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 10.5 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
For 4.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.8
23.3
24.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
6.8
9.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
23.9
23.2
24.7
vs Similar (43)
10.0
9.9
10.2
3.8
3.8
3.9
23.8
23.3
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
42%
52%
56%
54%
58%
61%
54%
70%
% under line
53%
58%
48%
44%
46%
42%
39%
46%
30%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
11.0
3.4
3.9
2.9
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Stronger (12)
11.4
11.7
11.2
4.0
4.5
3.5
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (38)
9.8
8.7
10.9
3.2
3.7
2.7
21.8
21.4
22.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
56%
71%
44%
56%
32%
55%
60%
50%
% under line
37%
44%
29%
56%
44%
68%
45%
40%
50%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.73+0.6%
Under 9.5
45.7%
@ 2.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Unibet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.4%
Under 21.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gillingham or Draw✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.44
Edge
+7.9%
42%
31%
27%
covers Gillingham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Gillingham or Northampton✗ Miss
69.3%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.2%
42%
31%
27%
covers Gillingham + Northampton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Draw or Northampton✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.45
Edge
-5.7%
42%
31%
27%
covers Draw + Northampton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gillingham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.4%
@ 1.29+0.7%
Under
27.6%
@ 3.27-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Gillingham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.50-0.5%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.49+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Gillingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 5.82-1.9%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Gillingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 14.00-2.6%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Northampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.1%
@ 1.30-8.2%
Under
36.9%
@ 3.23+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.48
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
Northampton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.3%
@ 2.53-10.5%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.47+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Northampton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 6.03-7.5%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.10+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Northampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 14.75-4.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gillingham, so a minus line means Gillingham give that many goals of a start and Northampton receive them. At -1, Gillingham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gillingham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gillingham)Actual: Northampton
Gillingham -2
6.9%
@ 10.89-1.2%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 6.67-0.6%
Northampton +2
80.4%
@ 1.12+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Gillingham)Actual: Northampton
Gillingham -1
19.6%
@ 5.17+2.2%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 4.15+0.6%
Northampton +1
58.2%
@ 1.47-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Gillingham)Actual: Gillingham
Gillingham +1
72.5%
@ 1.44+10.3%
Draw +1
16.9%
@ 4.23-4.3%
Northampton -1
10.6%
@ 5.44-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Handicap +2 (Gillingham)Actual: Gillingham
Gillingham +2
89.4%
@ 1.11+10.0%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 6.85-5.3%
Northampton -2
3.0%
@ 11.65-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.44
0.75
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.87
0.42
0.75
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
64.6%
@ 1.40-1.8%
Under 0.5
35.4%
@ 2.76+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.87-4.4%
Under 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.37+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Under
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.9%
@ 7.44-3.6%
Under 2.5
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.2%
@ 2.12+5.3%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.65-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 6.94+0.3%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 20.50-1.6%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.2%
@ 2.14-8.1%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.64+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.02-5.2%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.07+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 20.50-4.0%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.62
1.38
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
1.23
0.64
1.29
0.58
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.93
0.43
0.79
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (23)
0.35
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.18
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.24+0.3%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.64-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 2.17-1.5%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.63+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 4.79-4.6%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.16+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Under
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.0%
@ 1.79+1.4%
Under
47.0%
@ 1.91-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 5.04+1.3%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.14-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 13.42-2.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 1.80-7.9%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.90+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 5.08-5.4%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.13+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 13.83-5.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.16
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
73.7%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.5%
1.44
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.5%
1.44
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.37
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gillingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Brophy25%
Robbie McKenzie25%
Omar Beckles25%
Will Goodwin25%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Northampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Logan Briggs33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Saunders33%
Logan Briggs33%
L. Evans25%
J. Maxwell25%
Tyrese Fornah25%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
Z. Jeacock0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hoskins25%
E. Moore0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Gillingham and Northampton have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Gillingham and Northampton have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Gillingham and Northampton have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Gillingham's defence is €1m less valuable than Northampton's (€1m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Rochdale
Salford
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale