Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Result & Analysis

The contest between Gillingham and Shrewsbury is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home chances sit at 36 %, a draw at 31 %, and an away victory at 32 %. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6 % probability. Gillingham, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded, while Shrewsbury, on the road, averages 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (85 %), Under 3.5 (80.9 %), Under 5.5 cards (77.7 %), Over 2.5 cards (76.9 %), Over 21.5 fouls (72.8 %), and Under 11.5 corners (70.8 %). Gillingham’s recent form shows a draw, a 0-0 stalemate with Fleetwood Town, whereas Shrewsbury’s last five include two consecutive defeats and a 1-3 loss to Barnet. The match promises a tight, low-scoring encounter with the home side slightly ahead.

Gillingham’s win extends their recent form, ending a draw and securing a home victory. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct, with a 36 % probability. The final score was 1-0, matching the actual result. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 85 % probability, Under 3.5 goals at 80.9 %, Under 5.5 cards at 77.7 %, Over 2.5 cards at 76.9 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.8 %, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.8 % all proved accurate. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 28 % probability, was close to the 1-0 outcome. Overall, the predictions performed well, reflecting the match’s modest scoring and defensive solidity.