PythiaFootballBETA
Walsall's recent win over Gillingham, where they scored three goals, suggests a strong performance from the visitors. However, their away form against similar opponents is slightly better at scoring goals, but also slightly worse at conceding.
The model predicts an away win, with a 47% chance, while a draw is 27% likely and a home win is 25% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
Gillingham's home form against similar opponents is average, scoring 1.25 goals and conceding 1.58 goals. Walsall's away form against similar opponents is also average, scoring 1.42 goals and conceding 1.25 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 76.4% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5, with a 71.4% chance. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 47%.
The win extends Walsall's run of form, having come off a win and now securing a 0-3 victory over Gillingham. The final scoreline confirms the actual result - an away win. The model's selection, Walsall to win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was justified, as Walsall's away form, with an average of 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, proved decisive. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at 76.4% and Under 3.5 also hitting at 71.4%.
Gillingham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 2.07 | 0.87 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.12 | 1.85 | 1.23 | 1.77 | 1.00 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 1.43 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.64 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Walsall goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
GillinghamWalsallGillingham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 24.0 | 23.4 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 8.0 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.9 | 23.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Similar (43) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 24.0 | 23.4 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 43% | 40% | 46% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 56% | 71% |
| % under line | 57% | 60% | 54% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 37% | 44% | 29% |
Walsall| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 22.1 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 13.3 | - | 13.3 | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (45) | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 23.4 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | 23.0 | - | 23.0 |
| % over line | 62% | 68% | 57% | 46% | 68% | 29% | 56% | 64% | 50% |
| % under line | 38% | 32% | 43% | 54% | 32% | 71% | 44% | 36% | 50% |
Gillingham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.42 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.31 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Gillingham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.10 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.69 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.69 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Walsall| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.54 | 0.96 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 09/08/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/02/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/10/23 | A | 4-1 | |
| 18/03/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/08/22 | H | 0-0 |
Gillingham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 6-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Walsall| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Bristol Rvs | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 20.2 | 50% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 2 |  Barnet | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11.2 | 75% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 3 | Walsall | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 12.8 | 75% | 4.2 | 50% | 24.8 | 75% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 41% |
| 4 |  Crewe | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 1.5 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 11.2 | 75% | 3.8 | 25% | 26.2 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50% |
| 5 |  Oldham | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 11.5 | 75% | 4.5 | 50% | 24.0 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 48% |
| 6 |  York | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 2.5 | 25% | 18.5 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 |  Cheltenham | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.8 | 25% | 2.8 | 50% | 20.8 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 8 |  Swindon | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 12.5 | 75% | 2.2 | 0% | 16.8 | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Colchester | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 28.0 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 10 |  Tranmere | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.8 | 25% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Grimsby | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 11.5 | 75% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.8 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 12 |  Fleetwood Town | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 23.8 | 75% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 13 |  Rotherham | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 7.8 | 25% | 3.8 | 50% | 20.2 | 25% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 |  Newport County | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 11.8 | 100% | 4.5 | 75% | 23.5 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 47% |
| 15 |  Exeter | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 23.8 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 |  Chesterfield | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 6.0 | 25% | 3.8 | 50% | 24.0 | 75% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 17 |  Crawley Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 9.2 | 25% | 7.0 | 75% | 21.8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 18 |  Northampton | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.2 | 25% | 20.0 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 19 |  Rochdale | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 0% | 8.8 | 25% | 5.8 | 75% | 24.0 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 |  Salford | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 8.8 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 28.8 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 21 | Gillingham | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1.8 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 11.0 | 75% | 4.5 | 50% | 23.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 22 |  Shrewsbury | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 9.0 | 25% | 3.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 75% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 44% |
| 23 |  Accrington | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 10.2 | 75% | 4.5 | 75% | 25.2 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 48% |
| 24 |  Port Vale | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 8.0 | 25% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.8 | 75% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | - |