The match between Ægir and Völsungur is expected to be an entertaining one, with Ægir looking to break their recent slump after five consecutive defeats. They've struggled to find the back of the net, scoring just 0.83 goals on average at home against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.5 goals. Völsungur, on the other hand, has shown resilience, coming off a win after a mixed run of results.
Ægir are the favoured team, with a 42% chance of winning at home, while Völsungur have a 32% chance of taking all three points. A draw is also possible, with a 26% probability. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, which has a probability of 11.9%. Ægir are likely to score more than 1.5 goals, according to the model, with an 82.5% chance. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 32%. The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 82.5%.
Results analysis
The surprise of the day came from Völsungur, who secured an away win against Ægir, overturning the pre-match favourite's expectations. Ægir's winless streak extended to six games, following a 0-2 defeat. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, given the final score of 0-2. The model's call was wrong, as Völsungur pulled off the upset. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, as the total goals scored was indeed above 1.5. The model's selection had a pre-match probability of 42%, while Over 1.5 had a 82.5% chance of occurring.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ægir win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied 38.0% · @ 2.38
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Betano
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.83
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.06
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Dafabet
3.90
Völsungur win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.36
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.45
Dafabet
2.43
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ægir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
3.00
1.14
2.50
1.56
3.44
vs Stronger (30)
1.37
3.00
1.14
2.50
1.56
3.44
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.70
1.69
2.38
1.36
3.07
vs Stronger (22)
1.64
2.68
1.83
2.17
1.40
3.30
vs Similar (8)
1.25
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.25
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.05-5.0%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 7.40+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.30-10.9%
Under 2.5
40.2%
@ 3.13+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 1.79-14.5%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.93+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
SBO
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.93
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.8%
@ 1.29-8.6%
No
37.2%
@ 3.22+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
No
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 8.41+6.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 9.17+4.3%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.18+3.0%
1-0
6.5%@ 15.71+3.7%
2-2
6.4%@ 9.13+1.7%
2-0
6.3%@ 16.73+3.7%
0-0
5.6%@ 24.32+3.8%
0-1
5.4%@ 15.57+2.6%
Ægir goals ↓
Völsungur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.4%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
1
6.5%
12%
7.7%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.0%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.5%
5.0%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ægir goals (down), columns = Völsungur goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Ægir is 1.67 points worse than Völsungur in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Ægir is 0.70 goals worse than Völsungur in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Ægir is 2.68 goals worse than Völsungur in terms of goals conceded per game (4.57 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ægir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.47
0.36
1.36
0.62
1.56
vs Stronger (30)
0.50
1.47
0.36
1.36
0.62
1.56
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.27
0.69
1.19
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (22)
0.73
1.41
0.83
1.08
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.88
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ægir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ægir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.53
0.79
1.14
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (30)
0.87
1.53
0.79
1.14
0.94
1.88
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.43
1.00
1.19
0.86
1.71
vs Stronger (22)
0.91
1.27
1.00
1.08
0.80
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.88
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ægir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-5.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Ægir and Völsungur have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Ægir and Völsungur have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Ægir and Völsungur have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Ægir and Völsungur have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →