The encounter between Girona and Las Palmas is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or a reverse result. The expected goal total sits at 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Girona, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Las Palmas, on the road, averages 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The probabilities for the match outcome are 39% for a Girona win, 28% for a draw, and 33% for a Las Palmas win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.2% with a 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2% with a 7% edge), and Under 5.5 (94.0% with a 1% edge). Girona’s recent form shows a shaky start with a loss to Córdoba, while Las Palmas come off a two-game winning streak, adding to the uncertainty.
Results analysis
Girona’s victory over Las Palmas, 5-2, extended their recent win and pushed the total goals far beyond the model’s forecast of 2.7. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 39% probability and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.6%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 95.4%. However, Under 6.5, Home under 3.5 goals, and Under 5.5 missed, with probabilities of 97.8%, 94.2%, and 94.0% respectively. The match’s high score left the model’s total-goals prediction well below the actual tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Girona win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.71
Edge
-15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.78
Dafabet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.63
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.79
Pinnacle
3.71
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Las Palmas win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.65
Edge
+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.88
1xBet
4.84
Dafabet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Girona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.20
1.14
1.07
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.13
1.20
0.90
1.08
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.53
0.60
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.30
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
2.10
0.80
2.60
0.80
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
@ 1.23+1.0%
Under 1.5
22.8%
@ 3.92-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.78-1.5%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.02+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.6%
@ 2.86-3.1%
Under 3.5
70.4%
@ 1.39+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
10Bet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
@ 1.71+2.7%
No
43.2%
@ 2.02-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
No
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
BetVictor
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.56+6.6%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.28+2.6%
1-0
8.0%@ 6.89+1.6%
1-2
7.9%@ 13.07+4.5%
0-0
7.6%@ 10.86+3.6%
0-1
7.2%@ 12.18+3.6%
2-0
6.6%@ 7.87+1.0%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.71+2.2%
Girona goals ↓
Las Palmas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.2%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.7%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.2%
4.2%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Girona goals (down), columns = Las Palmas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Girona is 0.28 points better than Las Palmas in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Girona is 0.55 goals better than Las Palmas in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Girona is 0.04 goals better than Las Palmas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Girona
For 4.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 16.9 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Las Palmas
For 3.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 14.5 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Girona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
4.2
4.7
3.8
25.3
24.8
25.8
vs Stronger (7)
11.0
8.2
14.7
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.7
20.8
18.3
vs Similar (39)
9.1
9.1
9.1
4.4
5.1
3.8
25.9
25.7
26.1
vs Weaker (4)
7.7
9.0
7.0
5.2
5.0
5.3
29.7
22.0
33.5
% over line
37%
33%
40%
52%
62%
42%
76%
75%
76%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
48%
38%
58%
24%
25%
24%
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.3
8.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
27.6
27.0
28.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
8.5
8.7
8.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
27.0
26.4
27.6
vs Weaker (15)
7.4
7.4
7.4
4.2
4.4
4.0
28.9
28.6
29.3
% over line
35%
42%
28%
60%
54%
65%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
65%
58%
72%
40%
46%
35%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.3
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.3
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.6
Valladolid
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
Almeria
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Leganes
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.6
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.3
Castellón
28.3
FC Andorra
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
Sabadell
27.6
Las Palmas
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Granada CF
27.0
Burgos
26.5
Almeria
26.4
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
36.9%
@ 2.24-4.1%
Under 9.5
63.1%
@ 1.56+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Unibet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.4%
@ 1.32+4.6%
Under 3.5
26.6%
@ 2.92-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.90
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.8%
Under 21.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Girona or Draw✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied 79.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
-12.6%
39%
28%
33%
covers Girona + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Girona or Las Palmas✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
-3.0%
39%
28%
33%
covers Girona + Las Palmas
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Draw or Las Palmas✗ Miss
61.1%
Avg Implied 45.4% · @ 2.06
Edge
+15.6%
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Las Palmas
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Girona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.2%
@ 1.13-5.7%
Under
23.8%
@ 5.12+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Girona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.1%
@ 1.73-12.1%
Under
57.9%
@ 2.04+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Girona over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
17.5%
@ 3.26-11.0%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.30+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Girona over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.8%
@ 6.98-7.5%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.07+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Las Palmas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
@ 1.47+10.0%
Under
27.0%
@ 2.51-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
BetVictor
2.55
Las Palmas over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 3.35+9.8%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.29-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Las Palmas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 9.02+4.1%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.04-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.10
Superbet
8.70
Betfair
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Las Palmas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 22.50+0.1%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Girona, so a minus line means Girona give that many goals of a start and Las Palmas receive them. At -1, Girona must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Girona win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Girona)Actual: Girona
Girona -2
7.2%
@ 5.66-8.6%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 4.86-6.5%
Las Palmas +2
80.9%
@ 1.36+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.45
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Handicap -1 (Girona)Actual: Girona
Girona -1
19.1%
@ 2.82-12.6%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 3.56-5.3%
Las Palmas +1
61.1%
@ 2.07+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Away
Unibet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Handicap +1 (Girona)Actual: Girona
Girona +1
66.9%
@ 1.17-9.0%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 5.91+3.0%
Las Palmas -1
15.1%
@ 9.69+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
4.33
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Marathonbet
6.15
Handicap +2 (Girona)Actual: Girona
Girona +2
84.9%
@ 1.03-5.5%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 14.00+3.2%
Las Palmas -2
5.2%
@ 31.50+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Girona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.35
0.60
0.40
0.46
0.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.45
0.60
0.10
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
1.40
0.60
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.1%
@ 1.34+4.4%
Under 0.5
25.9%
@ 3.08-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.58-2.4%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.46+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.0%
@ 6.27+1.2%
Under 2.5
84.0%
@ 1.09-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Girona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.4%
@ 1.70+5.7%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.05-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Under
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Girona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.8%
@ 4.29+10.3%
Under
68.2%
@ 1.18-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Girona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 10.58+1.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.03-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
10Bet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
26.8%
@ 2.55-9.5%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.46+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.12-5.6%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.10
Betano
8.25
10Bet
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 38.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Girona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.78
0.60
0.50
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.33
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.50
1.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.50
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.5%
@ 1.19+3.2%
Under 0.5
18.5%
@ 4.28-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.8%
@ 1.95+2.0%
Under 1.5
50.2%
@ 1.79-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
22.9%
@ 3.96-0.7%
Under 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.22+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Girona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.48+8.5%
Under
28.7%
@ 2.50-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Girona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.1%
@ 3.20+7.1%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.31-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Girona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 8.07+0.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.05-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.08-4.7%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.67+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.5%
@ 6.65-4.4%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.60
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 20.33-2.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.6%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
1.18
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
+11.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+15.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.2%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.1%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.4%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.29
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.47
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.3%
1.48
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
-
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.4%
1.39
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
+3.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Girona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yáser Asprilla67%
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Izan González33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bryan Gil33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Gil67%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Fran Beltrán0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Las Palmas
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez33%
Manuel Fuster33%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo Loiodice33%
Kirian Rodríguez33%
Giovanni Bonfanti33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manuel Fuster33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Girona's squad is €84m more valuable than Las Palmas's (€114m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Girona's attack is €50m more valuable than Las Palmas's (€64m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Girona's midfield is €26m more valuable than Las Palmas's (€28m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Girona's defence is €9m more valuable than Las Palmas's (€22m vs €13m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Eibar
Sabadell
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC