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Glenavon FC vs Ballymena United Result & Analysis

Date: 12/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Vs
41%
29%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L20W13L22D10W00D11D00D21WH·CLI17/08H·LIN20/08A·COL24/08A·BAL30/08H·LOU07/09A·CRU14/09H·LAR17/09H·DUN21/09A·GLE28/09H·POR05/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.701.201.531.001.87
vs Stronger (12)0.752.000.501.501.002.50
vs Similar (18)1.331.501.671.561.001.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L01L01L31W10W10W41W32W10W41WA·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.531.671.330.931.73
vs Stronger (13)0.921.691.501.000.432.29
vs Similar (17)1.591.411.781.561.381.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1 ✓
7.7%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.2%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
09.0%7.7%5.2%2.0%0.6%
19.6%14%7.3%2.8%0.8%
27.6%8.8%5.1%2.0%0.6%
33.5%4.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
41.2%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Glenavon FC is 0.03 points worse than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.24).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Glenavon FC is 0.13 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Glenavon FC is 0.18 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L10W12L00D10W00D01L00D01LH·CLI17/08H·LIN20/08A·COL24/08A·BAL30/08H·LOU07/09A·CRU14/09H·LAR17/09H·DUN21/09A·GLE28/09H·POR05/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.330.930.601.00
vs Stronger (12)0.331.000.171.000.501.00
vs Similar (18)0.560.940.440.890.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L21W00D00D20W11D10W31WA·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.800.730.470.40
vs Stronger (13)0.150.540.170.500.140.57
vs Similar (17)1.000.591.220.890.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W01L22D00D00D10W00D20WH·CLI17/08H·LIN20/08A·COL24/08A·BAL30/08H·LOU07/09A·CRU14/09H·LAR17/09H·DUN21/09A·GLE28/09H·POR05/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.870.600.400.87
vs Stronger (12)0.421.000.330.500.501.50
vs Similar (18)0.780.561.220.670.330.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D00D10W10W10W21W21W00D10WA·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.870.600.471.33
vs Stronger (13)0.771.151.330.500.291.71
vs Similar (17)0.590.820.560.670.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Glenavon FC's squad is €1m less valuable than Ballymena United's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
GF wins
0
Draws
3
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Glenavon FC vs Ballymena United · H/A from GF
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/24ABallymena United Vs GF3-1
16/04/24ABallymena United Vs GF1-0
30/12/23HGF Vs Ballymena United0-1
11/11/23ABallymena United Vs GF0-1
02/09/23HGF Vs Ballymena United1-0
11/04/23HGF Vs Ballymena United3-2
03/04/23ABallymena United Vs GF0-1
28/10/22HGF Vs Ballymena United3-2

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/24HGF Vs Portadown2-1
28/09/24AGlentoran Vs GF0-0
21/09/24HGF Vs Dungannon Swifts1-1
17/09/24HGF Vs Larne0-0
14/09/24ACrusaders FC Vs GF0-1
07/09/24HGF Vs Loughgall2-2
30/08/24ABallymena United Vs GF3-1
24/08/24AColeraine FC Vs GF0-2
20/08/24HGF Vs Linfield0-3
17/08/24HGF Vs Cliftonville FC1-2

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/24HBU Vs Loughgall4-1
28/09/24APortadown Vs BU0-1
21/09/24HBU Vs Cliftonville FC3-2
17/09/24ACarrick Rangers Vs BU1-4
14/09/24HBU Vs Glentoran1-0
07/09/24ALarne Vs BU0-1
30/08/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC3-1
24/08/24ADungannon Swifts Vs BU1-0
20/08/24HBU Vs Crusaders FC0-1
16/08/24AColeraine FC Vs BU4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDW1.00
HomeLDDDW1.12
AwayLWLWD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.882.503.23
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %40%29%50%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.781.422.12
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.04
HomeLWWWW1.12
AwayLLWWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals2.622.622.62
Over 1.5 %64%69%58%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored0.981.190.75
Conceded1.641.421.88
BTTS32%38%25%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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