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Glenavon FC vs Crusaders FC Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 0-2
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Vs
28%
30%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W02L01L02L12L13L02L01L02LH·BAL19/04A·CAR26/04H·BAL09/08A·CAR16/08A·GLE19/08H·COL23/08A·CLI30/08H·DUN06/09A·LAR13/09A·LIN20/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.331.231.231.001.41
vs Stronger (14)0.861.791.401.600.561.89
vs Similar (16)1.310.941.121.001.500.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L34L31W02L12L04L30W04L11DA·DUN26/04A·COL07/05H·CAR09/08A·BAN19/08H·GLE23/08A·POR29/08H·COL06/09A·DUN13/09A·LAR16/09H·BAL20/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.731.402.271.001.20
vs Stronger (7)0.862.291.002.330.752.25
vs Similar (23)1.301.571.502.251.090.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-2 ✓
8.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.1%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
Crusaders FC goals →
01234
011%11%8.2%3.6%1.2%
18.6%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
25.1%6.7%4.4%1.9%0.6%
31.8%2.3%1.5%0.7%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = Crusaders FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Glenavon FC is 0.24 points worse than Crusaders FC in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Glenavon FC is 0.33 goals worse than Crusaders FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.30).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Glenavon FC is 0.31 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 2.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L01L01L01L01L02L00D01LH·BAL19/04A·CAR26/04H·BAL09/08A·CAR16/08A·GLE19/08H·COL23/08A·CLI30/08H·DUN06/09A·LAR13/09A·LIN20/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.310.620.470.53
vs Stronger (14)0.290.570.400.600.220.56
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.250.620.750.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L32W21W02L01L03L20W01L00DA·DUN26/04A·COL07/05H·CAR09/08A·BAN19/08H·GLE23/08A·POR29/08H·COL06/09A·DUN13/09A·LAR16/09H·BAL20/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.770.601.000.600.53
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.330.670.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.740.671.080.640.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W01L00D01L11D12L00D01L01LH·BAL19/04A·CAR26/04H·BAL09/08A·CAR16/08A·GLE19/08H·COL23/08A·CLI30/08H·DUN06/09A·LAR13/09A·LIN20/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.920.620.530.88
vs Stronger (14)0.571.211.001.000.331.33
vs Similar (16)0.810.380.880.380.750.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D02L10W00D11D01L10W03L11DA·DUN26/04A·COL07/05H·CAR09/08A·BAN19/08H·GLE23/08A·POR29/08H·COL06/09A·DUN13/09A·LAR16/09H·BAL20/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.801.270.400.67
vs Stronger (7)0.431.430.671.670.251.25
vs Similar (23)0.650.830.831.170.450.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Glenavon FC and Crusaders FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Crusaders FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Crusaders FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Glenavon FC and Crusaders FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
GF wins
1
Draws
4
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Glenavon FC vs Crusaders FC · H/A from GF
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25HGF Vs Crusaders FC0-1
17/12/24HGF Vs Crusaders FC3-1
14/09/24ACrusaders FC Vs GF0-1
24/02/24ACrusaders FC Vs GF2-0
23/12/23HGF Vs Crusaders FC1-3
23/09/23ACrusaders FC Vs GF2-0
14/02/23HGF Vs Crusaders FC2-2
10/01/23HGF Vs Crusaders FC4-2

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25ALinfield Vs GF2-0
13/09/25ALarne Vs GF1-0
06/09/25HGF Vs Dungannon Swifts0-2
30/08/25ACliftonville FC Vs GF3-1
23/08/25HGF Vs Coleraine FC1-2
19/08/25AGlentoran Vs GF2-0
16/08/25ACarrick Rangers Vs GF1-0
09/08/25HGF Vs Ballymena United0-2
26/04/25ACarrick Rangers Vs GF0-4
19/04/25HGF Vs Ballymena United2-0

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HCF Vs Ballymena United1-1
16/09/25ALarne Vs CF4-0
13/09/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF0-3
06/09/25HCF Vs Coleraine FC0-4
29/08/25APortadown Vs CF2-1
23/08/25HCF Vs Glentoran0-2
19/08/25ABangor Vs CF1-3
09/08/25HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-4
07/05/25AColeraine FC Vs CF1-0
26/04/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.92
HomeLWLLL1.00
AwayLLLLL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%26%22%
AVG goals2.322.432.22
Over 1.5 %72%74%70%
Over 2.5 %36%48%26%
Over 3.5 %20%17%22%
Scored0.921.040.81
Conceded1.401.391.41
BTTS36%48%26%
Clean Sheet20%13%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.34
HomeWLLLD1.35
AwayLWLWL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals2.823.462.12
Over 1.5 %74%92%54%
Over 2.5 %56%69%42%
Over 3.5 %38%54%21%
Scored1.281.541.00
Conceded1.541.921.12
BTTS48%65%29%
Clean Sheet24%12%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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