Glenavon FC are tipped to win, the model’s favourite result, with a 48% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 24% for Loughgall to come through. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Glenavon’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly-matched opponents, while Loughgall, on the road, averages 0.85 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 75% probability, Under 3.5 at 73%, and the match-result picks: Home win 48%, Draw 28%, Away win 24%. The edge for Over 1.5 is noted. This concise preview blends the statistical picture with recent form, offering a clear snapshot of what the model predicts.
Results analysis
The upset came as Glenavon, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the 48% chance of victory. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the model’s call wrong. The model had also selected Over 1.5 goals at 75% probability, which missed, while Under 3.5 at 73% hit. Glenavon entered the game on a win, extending a run that included a 3-1 victory over Rathfriland, yet they were outscored by Loughgall, who remained unbeaten in their last five with a 3-3 draw against Warrenpoint Town. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 13.2% was not achieved, and the 2-1 scenario at 9.4% also fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.27
1.20
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.17
1.44
1.00
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.23
1.00
2.50
0.69
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.12
1.00
2.40
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.91
2.27
1.00
2.56
0.85
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.4%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
Loughgall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.4%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.4%
5.0%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = Loughgall goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Glenavon FC is 0.63 points better than Loughgall in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Glenavon FC is 0.16 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Glenavon FC is 1.00 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 2.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.61
0.22
0.44
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.13
0.64
1.29
0.06
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.80
1.20
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.27
1.14
0.56
1.33
0.08
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
1.00
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.56
1.22
0.56
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.36
1.21
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.64
1.14
0.44
1.22
0.77
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Linfield
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Glentoran
Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Portadown
Crusaders FC
Ballymena United
Carrick Rangers
Annagh United