PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Glentoran vs Carrick Rangers Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Glentoran
Glentoran
Vs
45%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Glentoran are tipped to win this encounter, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of Carrick Rangers taking the win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, and the model’s most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Glentoran, playing at home against a weaker side, typically score 2.0 goals per game and concede only 0.5, while Carrick Rangers, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (92.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Home +2 handicap (87.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.9%) and Under 4.5 (83.2%). These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a low-scoring, home-favoured outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Glentoran win
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GlentoranGlentoran

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D11D21W50W00D26L20W12L20W12LH·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04A·COL25/04H·LIM08/08A·LIN15/08A·BAL21/08H·CRU29/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.101.871.002.071.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.741.371.781.331.701.40
vs Weaker (11)2.360.642.000.502.800.80
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W11D23L30W32W13L10W21W02L40WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.601.871.732.001.47
vs Stronger (11)1.182.000.672.001.802.00
vs Similar (19)2.371.372.671.562.101.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
Glentoran goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
06.7%5.8%4.4%1.8%0.6%
17.9%13%7.1%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.3%5.9%2.5%0.8%
34.1%5.1%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glentoran goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Glentoran is 0.67 points better than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Glentoran is 0.25 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Glentoran is 0.56 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glentoran or Draw
71.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Glentoran + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glentoran or Carrick Rangers
73.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Glentoran + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carrick Rangers
54.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glentoran over/under 0.5
Over
80.6%
Under
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Glentoran, so a minus line means Glentoran give that many goals of a start and Carrick Rangers receive them. At -1, Glentoran must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glentoran win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glentoran)
Glentoran -2
10.1%
Draw -2
14.0%
Carrick Rangers +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glentoran)
Glentoran -1
24.2%
Draw -1
21.1%
Carrick Rangers +1
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glentoran)
Glentoran +1
71.8%
Draw +1
15.9%
Carrick Rangers -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glentoran)
Glentoran +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.2%
Carrick Rangers -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GlentoranGlentoran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L20W30W00D02L00D01L00D01LH·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04A·COL25/04H·LIM08/08A·LIN15/08A·BAL21/08H·CRU29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.530.600.800.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.470.580.330.780.600.40
vs Weaker (11)1.000.360.830.331.200.40
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L11D20W01L11D00D20W00D10WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.530.930.671.270.40
vs Stronger (11)0.820.640.330.831.400.40
vs Similar (19)1.260.471.330.561.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GlentoranGlentoran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W01L20W00D24L20W11D20W11DH·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04A·COL25/04H·LIM08/08A·LIN15/08A·BAL21/08H·CRU29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.601.330.401.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.260.791.440.561.101.00
vs Weaker (11)1.360.271.170.171.600.40
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W12L10W31W02L10W01L02L30WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.070.931.070.731.07
vs Stronger (11)0.361.360.331.170.401.60
vs Similar (19)1.110.891.331.000.900.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Under 6.597.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.1%-------
Under 5.592.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.6%-------
Home +2 handicap87.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.7%-------
Under 4.583.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.6%-------
Over 1.579.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.3%-------
Away +2 handicap75.8%-------
Home or Away73.4%-------
Home or Draw71.8%-------
Home +1 handicap71.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Glentoran's squad is €1m more valuable than Carrick Rangers's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Glentoran and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Glentoran and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Glentoran and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
GLE wins
4
Draws
1
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Glentoran vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from GLE
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/26HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers1-0
03/01/26ACarrick Rangers Vs GLE0-7
30/08/25HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers1-1
15/03/25ACarrick Rangers Vs GLE0-0
19/10/24HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers1-1
23/08/24ACarrick Rangers Vs GLE2-3
10/02/24HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers2-2
04/11/23HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers2-3

GlentoranGlentoran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HGLE Vs Crusaders FC1-2
21/08/26ABallymena United Vs GLE0-2
15/08/26ALinfield Vs GLE2-1
08/08/26HGLE Vs Limavady United2-0
25/04/26AColeraine FC Vs GLE6-2
17/04/26HGLE Vs Larne0-0
11/04/26HGLE Vs Dungannon Swifts5-0
07/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs GLE1-2
28/03/26HGLE Vs Linfield1-1
21/03/26HGLE Vs Coleraine FC1-1

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ABangor Vs CR0-4
22/08/26HCR Vs Coleraine FC0-2
15/08/26ALimavady United Vs CR1-2
08/08/26HCR Vs Portadown1-0
06/05/26ADungannon Swifts Vs CR3-1
25/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CR2-3
18/04/26ABangor Vs CR0-3
11/04/26HCR Vs Ballymena United2-3
07/04/26APortadown Vs CR1-1
28/03/26HCR Vs Crusaders FC6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Glentoran
Glentoran
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.82
HomeDWDWL1.84
AwayWWLLW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%52%56%
AVG goals2.862.603.12
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %30%20%40%
Scored1.801.641.96
Conceded1.060.961.16
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet38%32%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.46
HomeWWLWL1.36
AwayWWLWW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals3.323.323.32
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.761.641.88
Conceded1.561.681.44
BTTS66%64%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

← all matches