Glentoran are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 64% chance to a home win, a 22% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of a Dungannon Swifts victory. The prediction is driven by Glentoran’s strong home form, averaging two goals scored and only half a goal conceded against weaker opponents, while Dungannon Swifts struggle on the road, conceding four goals on average to stronger teams. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.5% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, reflecting Glentoran’s dominance at home and Dungannon’s recent away difficulties. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4%), Under 5.5 (92.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.0%) and Home or Draw (86.1%). The edge percentages highlight the confidence in each selection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Glentoran win
63.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Glentoran
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.10
1.87
1.00
2.07
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.37
1.78
1.33
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.64
2.00
0.50
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.64
1.64
0.94
2.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
3.50
0.75
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.30
2.00
1.20
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%
1-1
10.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
4.3%
Glentoran goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10%
11%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.7%
6.7%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glentoran goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Glentoran is 0.76 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Glentoran is 0.75 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Glentoran is 1.00 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glentoran or Draw
85.8%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
14%
covers Glentoran + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glentoran or Dungannon Swifts
77.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
14%
covers Glentoran + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
36.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
14%
covers Draw + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glentoran over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
Under
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Glentoran, so a minus line means Glentoran give that many goals of a start and Dungannon Swifts receive them. At -1, Glentoran must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glentoran win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glentoran)
Glentoran -2
20.2%
Draw -2
19.7%
Dungannon Swifts +2
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glentoran)
Glentoran -1
39.9%
Draw -1
23.5%
Dungannon Swifts +1
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glentoran)
Glentoran +1
85.8%
Draw +1
9.5%
Dungannon Swifts -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glentoran)
Glentoran +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.6%
Dungannon Swifts -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Glentoran
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.33
0.78
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.36
0.83
0.33
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
1.07
0.64
0.25
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Glentoran
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.60
1.33
0.40
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.79
1.44
0.56
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.27
1.17
0.17
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.57
1.00
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.00
1.75
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor