The contest between Gloria Bistrița and Metalul Buzău is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 36% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 37% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total is three goals, yet the most probable total number of goals is two, with a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. In terms of form, Gloria averages two goals scored and one conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Metalul, playing away, averages 2.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5, with an 80.7% probability. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every figure appears only once.
Gloria Bistriţa’s recent form, ending with a win, gave them some confidence, but Metalul Buzău’s five-match run of two losses and two wins proved decisive. The final score was 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s pick and its 37% probability, confirming the model’s call. The expected total of 3.0 goals was far higher than the actual total of one, a clear miss on the model’s goal prediction. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 with an 80.7% chance, was missed as the match produced only one goal. All figures are reported exactly as provided.
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.80 | 1.60 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.68 | 1.41 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.46 | 1.69 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.33 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.00 | 1.23 | 1.69 | 0.88 | 2.36 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.73 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 0.91 | 2.27 | 1.82 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.75 | 0.88 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Metalul Buzău goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 12% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 0.31 | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.70 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.68 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 0.75 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-4 |
Gloria Bistriţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
Metalul Buzău| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 05/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 31 | 69 | 68% | 2.2 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 2.3 | 58% | 39% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Voluntari | 31 | 64 | 61% | 2.1 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.4 | 68% | 39% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 30 | 64 | 63% | 2.1 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | ASA Targu Mures | 28 | 51 | 54% | 1.8 | 53 | 29 | +24 | 2.9 | 79% | 64% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Metalul Buzău | 28 | 50 | 57% | 1.8 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 2.9 | 71% | 54% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Bihor Oradea | 31 | 50 | 48% | 1.6 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 3.3 | 87% | 71% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 31 | 49 | 48% | 1.6 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 3.1 | 81% | 58% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slatina | 28 | 43 | 43% | 1.5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 28 | 42 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Concordia | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 2.4 | 68% | 36% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Politehnica Iasi | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 2.1 | 61% | 36% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | CSM Reşiţa | 28 | 40 | 43% | 1.4 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 2.9 | 82% | 46% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 13 | Chindia Targoviste | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 2.8 | 77% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | CS Afumati | 28 | 37 | 39% | 1.3 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Gloria Bistriţa | 28 | 34 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 2.7 | 82% | 57% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 2.7 | 73% | 43% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | Dumbrăviţa | 28 | 32 | 32% | 1.1 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 2.5 | 64% | 46% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 | CSM Satu Mare | 28 | 28 | 29% | 1.0 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 3.2 | 79% | 57% | 46% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 19 | Tunari | 28 | 27 | 21% | 1.0 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 2.6 | 86% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 20 | CS Dinamo București | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 2.6 | 83% | 43% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 28 | 20 | 18% | 0.7 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 3.1 | 86% | 61% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Muscelul Câmpulung Elite | 28 | 11 | 7% | 0.4 | 14 | 72 | -58 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | - |