Gloria Bistrița is the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 86 % chance of a home win, 10 % for a draw and 4 % for a Popești-Leordeni victory. The prediction favours a 3-0 result, the most likely scoreline at 12.7 % probability, and an average of 3.7 goals, with 21 % of games expected to finish with exactly three goals. The home side’s form at home against weaker opposition shows they average 0.0 goals scored and concede 2.0, while Popești-Leordeni, playing away against stronger teams, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Recent form underscores the disparity: Gloria Bistrița, after a defeat, is still strong at home, whereas Popești-Leordeni, fresh from a 4-1 win, has struggled away. The model’s selections reinforce this narrative: Away under 3.5 goals99.7 %, Home +2 handicap99.1 %, Away under 2.5 goals98.0 %, Under 7.596.6 %, Home or Draw96.4 %, Home +1 handicap96.4 %, Home over 0.5 goals95.5 %, and Under 6.592.1 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gloria Bistriţa win
82.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni win
4.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gloria Bistriţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.03
1.19
0.94
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.65
0.91
1.55
0.73
1.75
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Popești-Leordeni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Popești-Leordeni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.92
1.33
2.12
1.38
1.50
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
1.70
1.50
1.71
1.57
1.67
1.33
vs Similar (2)
3.00
0.50
5.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.3%
3-0
12.5%
1-0
8.9%
4-0
8.8%
2-1
7.7%
3-1
7.3%
1-1
6.0%
4-1
5.1%
Gloria Bistriţa goals ↓
Popești-Leordeni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.9%
6.0%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
2
13%
7.7%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
3
12%
7.3%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
8.8%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gloria Bistriţa goals (down), columns = Popești-Leordeni goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
Gloria Bistriţa and Popești-Leordeni are level in average points per game (both 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
Gloria Bistriţa is 0.60 goals worse than Popești-Leordeni in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
Gloria Bistriţa is 0.40 goals better than Popești-Leordeni in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gloria Bistriţa or Draw
95.4%
Avg Implied -
83%
13%
5%
covers Gloria Bistriţa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa or Popești-Leordeni
87.4%
Avg Implied -
83%
13%
5%
covers Gloria Bistriţa + Popești-Leordeni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Popești-Leordeni
17.2%
Avg Implied -
83%
13%
5%
covers Draw + Popești-Leordeni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5
Over
94.0%
Under
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 3.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 0.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 1.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 2.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gloria Bistriţa, so a minus line means Gloria Bistriţa give that many goals of a start and Popești-Leordeni receive them. At -1, Gloria Bistriţa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gloria Bistriţa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gloria Bistriţa)
Gloria Bistriţa -2
41.6%
Draw -2
22.2%
Popești-Leordeni +2
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gloria Bistriţa)
Gloria Bistriţa -1
63.8%
Draw -1
19.0%
Popești-Leordeni +1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gloria Bistriţa)
Gloria Bistriţa +1
95.4%
Draw +1
3.5%
Popești-Leordeni -1
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gloria Bistriţa)
Gloria Bistriţa +2
98.9%
Draw +2
0.9%
Popești-Leordeni -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gloria Bistriţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.44
0.31
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.39
0.64
0.18
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Popești-Leordeni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Popești-Leordeni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.50
0.43
0.71
1.33
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.2%
Under 0.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.0%
Under 1.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
Under 2.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gloria Bistriţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.75
0.62
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.52
0.91
0.55
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Popești-Leordeni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Popești-Leordeni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.83
1.38
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.00
1.29
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.2%
Under 1.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
Under 2.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Popești-Leordeni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
Gloria Bistriţa's squad is €1m more valuable than Popești-Leordeni's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
Gloria Bistriţa and Popești-Leordeni have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
Gloria Bistriţa and Popești-Leordeni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
Gloria Bistriţa and Popești-Leordeni have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →