GO Ahead Eagles are set to host Groningen on 12 September 2026, with the model favouring a home win at 47%. The draw probability sits at 24% while the away side’s chance is 29%. The expected total goals is 3.3, and the most likely total is 3, with a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability. GO Ahead Eagles have scored an average of 2.9 goals and conceded 1.1 at home against similar-strength opponents, whereas Groningen, playing away, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include: Away under 2.5 HT goals98.4% (edge 7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals97.1% (edge 8%), Under 7.597.1% (edge 1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals95.7% (edge 5%), Away under 3.5 goals95.5% (edge 5%), Under 6.593.0%, Under 5.5 cards92.5%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals91.2% (edge 2%). The Eagles, after a 2-5 loss to AZ Alkmaar, are coming off a defeat, while Groningen, after two straight defeats, lost 2-3 to Fortuna Sittard. This context highlights the model’s edge in predicting a modest, evenly contested match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles win
46.6%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.26
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.83
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.93
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Groningen win
29.1%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.72
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
10Bet
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.60
2.21
1.36
1.06
1.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.23
0.50
2.00
1.11
2.33
vs Similar (17)
2.12
1.12
2.90
1.10
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.64
1.29
1.31
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.20
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.43
1.44
1.33
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.5%
@ 1.13+3.0%
Under 1.5
14.5%
@ 5.34-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
Unibet
5.80
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
1xBet
5.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.7%
@ 1.46+1.0%
Under 2.5
35.3%
@ 2.57-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.48
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.7%
@ 2.21+0.0%
Under 3.5
57.3%
@ 1.65-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
65.9%
@ 1.43+0.9%
No
34.1%
@ 2.65-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
No
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Betano
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 7.50+4.7%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.79+4.0%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.68+2.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.12+2.2%
2-0
6.3%@ 13.28+2.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 14.34+2.6%
1-0
5.7%@ 11.53+1.8%
0-0
4.5%@ 18.19+2.1%
GO Ahead Eagles goals ↓
Groningen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.7%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GO Ahead Eagles goals (down), columns = Groningen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
GO Ahead Eagles is 0.25 points worse than Groningen in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
GO Ahead Eagles is 0.19 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
GO Ahead Eagles is 0.22 goals worse than Groningen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
GO Ahead Eagles is 1.0 percentage points worse than Groningen in terms of average possession (49% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles
For 5.6 · Against 6.8 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 18.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
For 4.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
GO Ahead Eagles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.1
3.0
2.7
3.3
19.0
19.9
18.2
vs Stronger (23)
10.9
10.1
11.6
2.8
3.1
2.6
18.0
18.9
17.2
vs Similar (27)
11.5
12.2
10.7
3.2
2.4
4.1
19.8
20.6
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
67%
60%
30%
21%
38%
27%
33%
20%
% under line
37%
33%
40%
70%
79%
62%
73%
67%
80%
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
20.7
20.2
21.1
vs Stronger (18)
8.7
9.9
7.7
3.1
3.4
2.8
21.1
20.9
21.2
vs Similar (31)
11.0
11.6
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.7
20.5
19.9
21.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
49%
52%
46%
42%
46%
38%
49%
39%
58%
% under line
51%
48%
54%
58%
54%
62%
51%
61%
42%
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.7%
@ 1.45-1.6%
Under 9.5
38.3%
@ 2.50+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.1%
Under 21.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
GO Ahead Eagles or Draw
78.9%
Avg Implied 65.7% · @ 1.43
Edge
+13.2%
47%
24%
29%
covers GO Ahead Eagles + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
GO Ahead Eagles or Groningen
78.4%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.6%
47%
24%
29%
covers GO Ahead Eagles + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Groningen
42.7%
Avg Implied 58.5% · @ 1.61
Edge
-15.7%
47%
24%
29%
covers Draw + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5
Over
89.3%
@ 1.15+8.6%
Under
10.7%
@ 4.83-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5
Over
65.5%
@ 1.78+13.2%
Under
34.5%
@ 1.95-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.93
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5
Over
38.8%
@ 3.42+11.7%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.27-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 3.5
Over
18.8%
@ 7.59+6.7%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.05-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Groningen over/under 0.5
Over
73.4%
@ 1.20-3.9%
Under
26.6%
@ 4.07+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Groningen over/under 1.5
Over
38.2%
@ 2.00-8.4%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.75+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Under
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Groningen over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
@ 4.16-7.5%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.19+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Groningen over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
@ 9.30-5.4%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to GO Ahead Eagles, so a minus line means GO Ahead Eagles give that many goals of a start and Groningen receive them. At -1, GO Ahead Eagles must win by two or more to land; a one-goal GO Ahead Eagles win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (GO Ahead Eagles)
GO Ahead Eagles -2
19.1%
@ 8.12+8.0%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 6.32+3.1%
Groningen +2
63.6%
@ 1.21-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Handicap -1 (GO Ahead Eagles)
GO Ahead Eagles -1
36.4%
@ 3.92+13.5%
Draw -1
20.9%
@ 4.19-0.5%
Groningen +1
42.7%
@ 1.61-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (GO Ahead Eagles)
GO Ahead Eagles +1
78.9%
@ 1.42+15.7%
Draw +1
12.0%
@ 4.60-7.5%
Groningen -1
9.1%
@ 5.16-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Handicap +2 (GO Ahead Eagles)
GO Ahead Eagles +2
90.9%
@ 1.13+11.8%
Draw +2
6.1%
@ 7.33-6.1%
Groningen -2
3.0%
@ 10.21-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GO Ahead Eagles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.93
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.54
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.78
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.41
1.20
0.30
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.80
0.20
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.23+0.2%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.76-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
William Hil
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.7%
@ 2.15-2.8%
Under 1.5
59.3%
@ 1.65+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Betano
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 4.67-4.2%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.16+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.75
Betano
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.16
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.1%
@ 1.72+2.1%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.02-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.71
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.95
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 4.66-2.2%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
@ 10.50-4.6%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Groningen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.2%
@ 1.84-8.1%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.86+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Groningen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.8%
@ 5.25-6.9%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.13+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Groningen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 11.00-6.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GO Ahead Eagles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.29
0.86
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.69
0.25
1.00
0.78
0.56
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.71
1.70
0.80
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.93
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
1.20
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.90
0.78
0.67
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.2%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Under 0.5
15.8%
@ 5.20-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Under
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Betano
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.69-3.8%
Under 1.5
48.6%
@ 2.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.5%
@ 3.12-6.2%
Under 2.5
76.5%
@ 1.32+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.0%
@ 1.50+6.2%
Under
32.0%
@ 2.44-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.40
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.8%
@ 3.42-1.3%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.27+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
@ 8.50-2.1%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Groningen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
@ 1.59-8.8%
Under
50.2%
@ 2.25+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Groningen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
@ 3.85-9.2%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.22+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Groningen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 8.25-8.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.05+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
Under 7.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+5.4%
Under 6.5
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
+0.0%
Under 5.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+11.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+8.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+7.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.22
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-
+9.2%
Under 5.5
84.9%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
-1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
+2.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+4.2%
Under 4.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
81.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-6.7%
Home or Draw
78.9%
1.43
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
+13.2%
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
+15.7%
Home or Away
78.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+2.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+6.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+0.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-
+1.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
-3.9%
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
1.26
Unibet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
Under 4.5
71.4%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
-3.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
GO Ahead Eagles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Søren Tengstedt75%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson50%
Victor Edvardsen50%
Melle Meulensteen33%
Julius Dirksen33%
Mathis Suray25%
Erik Flataker25%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Dean James0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julius Dirksen67%
Dean James25%
Melle Meulensteen0%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Søren Tengstedt0%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson0%
Victor Edvardsen0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Mathis Suray0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Erik Flataker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Melle Meulensteen33%
Evert Linthorst25%
Alfons Sampsted25%
Søren Tengstedt25%
Victor Edvardsen25%
Mathis Suray25%
Dean James25%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Julius Dirksen0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Erik Flataker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Søren Tengstedt50%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson25%
Victor Edvardsen25%
Erik Flataker25%
Melle Meulensteen0%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Julius Dirksen0%
Mathis Suray0%
Dean James0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
GO Ahead Eagles's squad is €10m less valuable than Groningen's (€22m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
GO Ahead Eagles's attack is €3m less valuable than Groningen's (€9m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
GO Ahead Eagles's midfield is €1m less valuable than Groningen's (€4m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
GO Ahead Eagles's defence is €6m less valuable than Groningen's (€8m vs €14m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur