The model favours a Gori victory, with a 44% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Merani Martvili win. The expected total is 2.8 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Gori, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Merani Martvili, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 5.5 (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Home +2 handicap (87.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.7%) and Under 4.5 (84.1%). Gori’s recent form shows a win after a series of mixed results, while Merani Martvili has endured two straight defeats. These figures suggest a tight contest where Gori’s home advantage and recent lift may tip the balance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gori win
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.12
2.67
1.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.14
2.67
1.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.20
1.33
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.36
1.25
1.33
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
Gori goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.2%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.1%
13%
7.3%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.2%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.9%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gori goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gori is 0.62 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gori is 0.75 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gori is 0.25 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gori or Draw
70.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Gori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gori or Merani Martvili
73.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Gori + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Merani Martvili
56.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Draw + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gori over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gori, so a minus line means Gori give that many goals of a start and Merani Martvili receive them. At -1, Gori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gori)
Gori -2
9.3%
Draw -2
13.6%
Merani Martvili +2
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gori)
Gori -1
22.9%
Draw -1
20.9%
Merani Martvili +1
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gori)
Gori +1
70.8%
Draw +1
16.4%
Merani Martvili -1
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gori)
Gori +2
87.2%
Draw +2
8.5%
Merani Martvili -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.58
0.67
0.15
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.62
2.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti