Gori vs Shturmi Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 48% chance for Shturmi, 28% for a draw and 25% for Gori. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Gori, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded; Shturmi, on the road, has a similar offensive output but a slightly better defensive record against this tier. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (94.7%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.5%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.

The upset came as Gori, riding a win in their last five, edged Shturmi 3-1, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win at 48%. The prediction was wrong. The model’s selections largely proved accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.9%, Under 5.5 hit at 94.7%, while Home under 2.5 2H goals missed at 93.6%. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home victory, leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the outcome.