The model favours an away win, with a 55% chance for Telavi, 24% for a draw and 21% for Gori. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11.2%. Gori, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Telavi, on the road, is expected to score fewer and concede more against this tier. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (96.3%), Away +2 handicap (91.8%), Under 5.5 (90.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.6%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.7%). Gori’s recent form shows a win after a 3-1 victory over Shturmi, while Telavi comes off a 1-2 defeat to Sioni.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gori win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi win
55.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.12
2.67
1.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.14
2.67
1.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Gori goals ↓
Telavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
8.0%
8.8%
5.7%
2.8%
1
4.2%
11%
9.9%
6.4%
3.1%
2
2.9%
5.7%
5.6%
3.6%
1.8%
3
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gori goals (down), columns = Telavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gori is 0.88 points worse than Telavi in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gori is 0.38 goals better than Telavi in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gori is 0.75 goals worse than Telavi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gori or Draw
44.5%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Gori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gori or Telavi
76.1%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Gori + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Telavi
79.4%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Draw + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gori over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gori, so a minus line means Gori give that many goals of a start and Telavi receive them. At -1, Gori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gori)
Gori -2
2.4%
Draw -2
5.8%
Telavi +2
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gori)
Gori -1
8.2%
Draw -1
12.4%
Telavi +1
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gori)
Gori +1
44.5%
Draw +1
22.2%
Telavi -1
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gori)
Gori +2
66.7%
Draw +2
17.2%
Telavi -2
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
Under 0.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.9%
Under 1.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.62
2.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
Under 0.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.5%
Under 1.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili