The away win is the most likely outcome in this match between Grasshoppers and FC Lugano, with a 46% chance of success. This is reflected in the probabilities: Grasshoppers have a 26% chance of winning, while FC Lugano have a 46% chance and the draw is at 28%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Grasshoppers have struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.92 goals and conceding 1.75. FC Lugano, on the other hand, have been impressive away from home, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.83.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals at 75.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74%, Over 3.5 cards at 74%, and Under 3.5 at 72.5% with a 7% edge. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 46%.
The win extends Grasshoppers' run of 4 losses in their last 6 games, following 2 straight defeats. In stark contrast, FC Lugano has been on a 5-game winning streak. The final score of 1-4 was a far cry from the expected total goals of 2.7, with the actual total being significantly higher. The model picked FC Lugano to win, a call that was correct given the actual result. The model's selection had a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.4%, while Over 21.5 fouls and Over 3.5 cards both missed, with probabilities of 74% and 74% respectively. Under 3.5 cards also missed, with a probability of 72.5%.
Grasshoppers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.83 | 1.07 | 1.79 | 1.19 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 1.08 | 2.00 | 0.92 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.33 | 1.17 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Lugano| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 0.93 | 2.00 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.50 | 0.90 | 1.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Lugano goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 13% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Grasshoppers
FC Lugano
Grasshoppers| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 25.6 |
| vs Stronger (37) | 9.5 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 25.3 | 25.2 | 25.4 |
| vs Similar (13) | 10.0 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 24.9 | 23.8 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 43% | 44% | 74% | 75% | 73% | 75% | 78% | 72% |
| % under line | 56% | 57% | 56% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 22% | 28% |
FC Lugano| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 25.1 | 24.8 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 24.6 | 24.4 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 26.4 | 26.0 | 26.6 |
| % over line | 42% | 33% | 50% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| % under line | 58% | 67% | 50% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Grasshoppers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.43 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
FC Lugano| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.33 | 1.13 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.70 | 0.35 | 1.09 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 0.30 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 75.4% | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -1.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.42 | +6.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/10/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/07/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 31/01/24 | A | 0-0 |
Grasshoppers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-4 |
FC Lugano| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 21.7 | 67% | 69 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.0 | 33% | 4.0 | 33% | 28.0 | 100% | 83 | 18 | 21 | 44 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 67% | 41 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 45% |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 21.3 | 33% | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 51% |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 67% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.7 | 100% | 70 | 37 | 17 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 7.0 | 100% | 31.0 | 100% | 47 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 100% | 24.7 | 100% | 17 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 30.3 | 100% | 58 | 23 | 16 | 19 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 51% |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 11.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 26.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 46% |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 45% |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.7 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 22.0 | 67% | 41 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 50% |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 19.3 | 33% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.7 | - |