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Grbalj vs Lovćen Result & Analysis

Date: 24/03/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Grbalj
Grbalj
Vs
44%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grbalj win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lovćen win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W21W10W11D11D02L12L21W00D00DH·IGA05/11A·LOV11/11H·ISK18/11A·KOM26/11A·BOK04/12H·BER02/03A·OTR06/03H·MLA10/03A·INT16/03A·IGA20/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.171.361.071.121.25
vs Stronger (22)1.091.271.101.101.081.42
vs Similar (2)2.001.002.001.002.001.00
vs Weaker (6)1.500.832.001.001.000.67
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L22D00D24L03L21W00D22D11DA·INT07/11H·GRB11/11H·IGA18/11A·ISK26/11A·KOM03/12H·BOK02/03A·BER06/03H·OTR10/03A·MLA16/03H·INT20/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.081.671.001.421.171.92
vs Stronger (16)0.881.620.891.560.861.71
vs Similar (8)1.501.751.331.001.602.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
Grbalj goals ↓
Lovćen goals →
01234
07.0%6.1%4.5%1.9%0.6%
18.2%13%7.2%3.0%0.9%
27.5%9.3%5.7%2.4%0.7%
34.0%4.9%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.6%2.0%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grbalj goals (down), columns = Lovćen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bokelj
2.22
Otrant-Olympic
2.19
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.58
Grbalj
1.50
Igalo
1.28
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.19
Lovćen
1.14
Kom
1.14
Internacional Podgorica
0.89
Berane
0.69
Grbalj is 0.36 points better than Lovćen in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bokelj
1.97
Otrant-Olympic
1.78
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.75
Kom
1.44
Grbalj
1.33
Igalo
1.11
Lovćen
1.00
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.00
Internacional Podgorica
1.00
Berane
0.94
Grbalj is 0.33 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Otrant-Olympic
0.56
Bokelj
0.78
Igalo
1.06
Grbalj
1.33
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.42
Lovćen
1.61
Kom
1.61
Internacional Podgorica
1.69
Berane
1.94
Grbalj is 0.28 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.61).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrbaljGrbalj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D10W01L01L00D00D00DH·IGA05/11A·LOV11/11H·ISK18/11A·KOM26/11A·BOK04/12H·BER02/03A·OTR06/03H·MLA10/03A·INT16/03A·IGA20/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.860.500.500.44
vs Stronger (22)0.590.500.600.500.580.50
vs Similar (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Weaker (6)1.000.501.670.670.330.33
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LovćenLovćen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D10W00D22D02L21W00D10W01LH·MLA28/10H·GRB11/11H·IGA18/11A·ISK26/11A·KOM03/12H·BOK02/03A·BER06/03H·OTR10/03A·MLA16/03H·INT20/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.611.000.330.830.911.18
vs Stronger (15)0.531.070.441.000.671.17
vs Similar (8)0.750.880.000.331.201.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrbaljGrbalj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W10W11D01L01L11D21W00D00DH·IGA05/11A·LOV11/11H·ISK18/11A·KOM26/11A·BOK04/12H·BER02/03A·OTR06/03H·MLA10/03A·INT16/03A·IGA20/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.500.570.620.81
vs Stronger (22)0.500.770.500.600.500.92
vs Similar (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
vs Weaker (6)0.500.330.330.330.670.33
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LovćenLovćen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L12L00D02L01L00D00D12L10WH·MLA28/10H·GRB11/11H·IGA18/11A·ISK26/11A·KOM03/12H·BOK02/03A·BER06/03H·OTR10/03A·MLA16/03H·INT20/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.740.670.580.270.91
vs Stronger (15)0.330.670.440.560.170.83
vs Similar (8)0.750.881.330.670.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
GRB (2)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOK (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOK (8)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
GRB wins
0
Draws
0
LOV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grbalj vs Lovćen · H/A from GRB
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/23ALovćen Vs GRB1-2
17/09/23HGRB Vs Lovćen2-1

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/24AIgalo Vs GRB0-0
16/03/24AInternacional Podgorica Vs GRB0-0
10/03/24HGRB Vs Mladost Lješkopolje2-1
06/03/24AOtrant-Olympic Vs GRB2-1
02/03/24HGRB Vs Berane0-2
04/12/23ABokelj Vs GRB1-1
26/11/23AKom Vs GRB1-1
18/11/23HGRB Vs Iskra (Montenegro)1-0
11/11/23ALovćen Vs GRB1-2
05/11/23HGRB Vs Igalo2-1

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/24HLOV Vs Internacional Podgorica1-1
16/03/24AMladost Lješkopolje Vs LOV2-2
10/03/24HLOV Vs Otrant-Olympic0-0
06/03/24ABerane Vs LOV1-2
02/03/24HLOV Vs Bokelj0-3
03/12/23AKom Vs LOV4-2
26/11/23AIskra (Montenegro) Vs LOV0-0
18/11/23HLOV Vs Igalo2-2
11/11/23HLOV Vs Grbalj1-2
07/11/23AInternacional Podgorica Vs LOV0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grbalj
Grbalj
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.28
HomeDWWLW1.44
AwayDDLDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.222.282.16
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %16%24%8%
Scored1.081.200.96
Conceded1.141.081.20
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDD1.21
HomeLDLDD1.17
AwayWDLWD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%25%33%
AVG goals2.752.423.08
Over 1.5 %71%67%75%
Over 2.5 %67%58%75%
Over 3.5 %33%25%42%
Scored1.081.001.17
Conceded1.671.421.92
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet29%33%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BokeljBokelj3680
67%
2.2
7128+43
2.8
83%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.00.8
-
2Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3679
64%
2.2
6420+44
2.3
72%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.6
-
3Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje3657
44%
1.6
6351+12
3.2
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
4GrbaljGrbalj3654
42%
1.5
4848+0
2.7
83%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
5IgaloIgalo3646
36%
1.3
4038+2
2.2
72%
36%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
6Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3643
33%
1.2
3648-12
2.3
58%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
7KomKom3641
33%
1.1
5258-6
3.1
83%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
8LovćenLovćen3641
28%
1.1
3658-22
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9Internacional PodgoricaInternacional Podgorica3632
19%
0.9
3661-25
2.7
67%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
10BeraneBerane3625
17%
0.7
3470-36
2.9
75%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Montenegro: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

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