Grimsby are tipped to edge Fleetwood Town, with the model picking a home win and a 42 % chance of victory, a 30 % draw probability and a 28 % chance of an away win. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two and the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 14.2 %. Grimsby’s home form shows they average 1.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded against similar opposition, while Fleetwood Town, playing away, average 0.93 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 % with a 2 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.4 % with a 3 % edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.2 % with a 5 % edge). Grimsby’s recent draw and Fleetwood’s unbeaten run add intrigue, but the odds favour a Grimsby win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Grimsby, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extends their recent streak of draws. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. The scoreline matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, yet the actual result was a 2-2 stalemate. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.4%) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%) hit. The model’s selections proved remarkably accurate, even though the favourite did not come through.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grimsby win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.86
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.90
Dafabet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Draw✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.52
Unibet
3.50
Fleetwood Town win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.06
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.38
Dafabet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.88
1.19
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.61
0.93
1.93
1.14
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fleetwood Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.03
1.20
1.20
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.08
1.27
1.27
0.86
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
@ 1.29-1.7%
Under 1.5
29.5%
@ 3.34+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 1.93-5.5%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.82+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 3.30-6.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.30+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
@ 1.79-2.2%
No
50.5%
@ 1.92+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.23+7.1%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.43+4.0%
0-0
10.4%@ 8.75+5.3%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.76+3.0%
0-1
8.3%@ 10.51+4.1%
2-0
8.2%@ 8.23+2.8%
1-2
6.8%@ 12.43+3.2%
0-2
5.1%@ 20.07+2.8%
Grimsby goals ↓
Fleetwood Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.3%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.7%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.7%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grimsby goals (down), columns = Fleetwood Town goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Grimsby is 0.36 points better than Fleetwood Town in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Grimsby is 0.37 goals better than Fleetwood Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Grimsby is 0.16 goals better than Fleetwood Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Grimsby is 5.5 percentage points better than Fleetwood Town in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Grimsby
For 5.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fleetwood Town
For 5.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.6
10.2
3.6
3.5
3.7
23.9
22.9
25.0
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
9.3
7.0
2.2
2.0
3.0
21.8
20.0
27.0
vs Similar (44)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.8
3.9
3.7
24.0
23.3
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
45%
52%
54%
50%
67%
58%
77%
% under line
48%
42%
55%
48%
46%
50%
33%
42%
23%
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fleetwood Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.9
10.7
3.7
3.1
4.4
22.8
22.8
22.8
vs Stronger (9)
11.2
11.0
11.5
3.1
2.4
4.0
22.2
20.8
23.8
vs Similar (41)
10.1
9.7
10.5
3.9
3.3
4.5
22.9
23.2
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
56%
61%
54%
41%
70%
60%
64%
57%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
46%
59%
30%
40%
36%
43%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
@ 1.60+1.2%
Under 9.5
41.1%
@ 2.18-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.7%
Under 21.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grimsby or Draw✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-5.3%
42%
30%
28%
covers Grimsby + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Grimsby or Fleetwood Town✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.4%
42%
30%
28%
covers Grimsby + Fleetwood Town
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Fleetwood Town✓ Hit
58.0%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.88
Edge
+8.7%
42%
30%
28%
covers Draw + Fleetwood Town
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.91
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grimsby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.18-4.6%
Under
26.1%
@ 4.31+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Grimsby over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 1.93-9.4%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.80+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Grimsby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 3.91-8.4%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.22+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Grimsby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.92-5.7%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.05+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.2%
@ 1.49+2.6%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.48-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 3.37+0.9%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.29-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Under
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 9.02-1.2%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.80
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Fleetwood Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 22.50-2.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grimsby, so a minus line means Grimsby give that many goals of a start and Fleetwood Town receive them. At -1, Grimsby must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grimsby win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grimsby)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Grimsby -2
7.3%
@ 7.04-5.4%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 5.24-4.2%
Fleetwood Town +2
79.8%
@ 1.27+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Grimsby)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Grimsby -1
20.2%
@ 3.29-7.0%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.53-3.4%
Fleetwood Town +1
58.0%
@ 1.87+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Handicap +1 (Grimsby)Actual: Grimsby
Grimsby +1
71.9%
@ 1.21-2.0%
Draw +1
16.9%
@ 5.51+0.7%
Fleetwood Town -1
11.2%
@ 8.98+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Grimsby)Actual: Grimsby
Grimsby +2
88.8%
@ 1.05+0.1%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 12.00+0.2%
Fleetwood Town -2
3.3%
@ 26.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.88
0.56
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.50
0.93
0.64
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.36
0.45
0.36
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.2%
@ 1.39+1.4%
Under 0.5
31.8%
@ 2.80-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.9%
@ 2.79-1.4%
Under 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.39+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 7.03-3.1%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.81-4.0%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.90+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 5.02-3.2%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.14+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.58-4.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.4%
@ 2.57+1.3%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.45-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.16-1.3%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 39.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.72
0.82
0.91
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.24+2.8%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 3.64-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 2.14-2.2%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.65+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 4.62-3.9%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.1%
@ 1.58-2.6%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.25+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 3.71-4.9%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.24+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 9.42-4.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 2.11+3.2%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.66-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 6.74-0.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.07+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 20.33-2.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.9%
1.20
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.29
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
1.35
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.1%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-3.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Grimsby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Fleetwood Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans40%
Will Davies40%
Ronan Coughlan33%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
M. Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
F. Potter40%
Andy Cannon33%
S. Rooney20%
L. McCann20%
H. Neal20%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
M. Helm0%
A. Murphy0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ronan Coughlan33%
Ched Evans20%
S. Rooney20%
M. Helm20%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
L. McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans40%
M. Helm40%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
F. Potter0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Grimsby and Fleetwood Town have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Grimsby and Fleetwood Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Grimsby and Fleetwood Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Grimsby's defence is €1m more valuable than Fleetwood Town's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale