Grindavik hosts Grotta in the Iceland: 1. Deild, with the away side coming off a draw and the home side coming off a defeat. The most recent results suggest a high-scoring match, as Grindavik conceded four goals in their last outing and Grotta conceded one in their last match. The model predicts a 38% chance of an away win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of a home win, with the away win being the most likely result.
The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.4% probability. Grindavik scores an average of 2 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 2 goals. Grotta scores an average of 1 goal away against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.44 goals. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 84.2% probability. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 38%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Grindavik, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 38 % home-win pick. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result, confirming the unexpected outcome. The model’s selections performed as follows: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.3 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.0 %; Over 1.5 missed at 83.9 %; Home +2 handicap hit at 81.3 %; Away +2 handicap hit at 80.7 %; Home over 0.5 goals missed at 80.0 %; Away over 0.5 goals missed at 79.6 %; and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 78.6 %. Both teams entered the match after defeats, with Grindavik’s last loss 1-6 to Fylkir and Grotta’s 1-3 defeat to IR Reykjavik.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grindavik win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.49
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.57
Dafabet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
888Sport
2.50
Draw✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.65
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Grotta win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.33
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.48
BetVictor
2.38
Dafabet
2.37
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grindavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.43
1.17
2.08
1.22
2.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.18
2.73
0.89
2.11
1.38
3.15
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.57
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.00
1.73
2.07
1.27
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
2.25
1.50
1.90
0.83
2.83
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.77
1.25
2.75
1.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.9%
@ 1.10-0.5%
Under 1.5
16.1%
@ 5.91+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.38-4.6%
Under 2.5
38.1%
@ 2.74+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Pinnacle
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.7%
@ 1.95-7.6%
Under 3.5
60.3%
@ 1.75+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
BetVictor
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Unibet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.7%
@ 1.36-2.9%
No
35.3%
@ 2.84+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.34
No
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 7.43+5.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.24+3.7%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.73+3.4%
2-2
6.7%@ 9.38+2.1%
1-0
5.5%@ 13.22+2.3%
0-1
5.4%@ 12.82+2.1%
2-0
5.3%@ 15.87+2.6%
0-2
5.2%@ 14.74+2.2%
Grindavik goals ↓
Grotta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.4%
5.2%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.5%
11%
8.3%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grindavik goals (down), columns = Grotta goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Grindavik is 0.51 points better than Grotta in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Grindavik is 0.06 goals worse than Grotta in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Grindavik is 0.42 goals worse than Grotta in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grindavik or Draw✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+2.1%
38%
26%
37%
covers Grindavik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Grindavik or Grotta✗ Miss
74.5%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
-0.9%
38%
26%
37%
covers Grindavik + Grotta
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Grotta✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.44
Edge
-1.2%
38%
26%
37%
covers Draw + Grotta
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
William Hil
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grindavik over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.0%
@ 1.16+0.1%
Under
20.0%
@ 4.60-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.60
1xBet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Grindavik over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 1.79-3.6%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.89+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Grindavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.52-4.2%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.24+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.60
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.35
Under
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Grindavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.70-4.1%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
6.80
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Grotta over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.6%
@ 1.14-1.7%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.93+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Under
Betfair
5.50
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Grotta over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.1%
@ 1.74-5.9%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.96+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Grotta over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 3.27-6.7%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.28+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.15
Under
Betfair
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Grotta over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.00-5.6%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.07+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Under
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grindavik, so a minus line means Grindavik give that many goals of a start and Grotta receive them. At -1, Grindavik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grindavik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grindavik)Actual: Grotta
Grindavik -2
7.8%
@ 8.07-3.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 6.44-2.0%
Grotta +2
80.7%
@ 1.15+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Unibet
6.00
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Grindavik)Actual: Grotta
Grindavik -1
19.3%
@ 4.23-1.3%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 4.31-1.8%
Grotta +1
62.3%
@ 1.47+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Grindavik)Actual: Grindavik
Grindavik +1
63.2%
@ 1.47+4.7%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.29-1.9%
Grotta -1
18.7%
@ 4.01-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.38
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
3.85
Away
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Handicap +2 (Grindavik)Actual: Grindavik
Grindavik +2
81.3%
@ 1.18+5.5%
Draw +2
11.2%
@ 6.67-2.2%
Grotta -2
7.4%
@ 8.27-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grindavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.58
1.33
0.39
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
1.59
0.56
1.33
0.46
1.77
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.77
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grindavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.58
0.75
0.83
1.17
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
1.14
0.33
0.78
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.67
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.93
1.33
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.69
1.00
1.40
0.33
2.17
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.07
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.10
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
81.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.28
Betfair
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.1%
1.24
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.5%
1.22
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-0.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →