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Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 13/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 2-1
Grindavik
Grindavik
Vs
28%
24%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Grindavik hosts Throttur Reykjavik in the Iceland: 1. Deild, with the away side boasting a recent-form note of coming off a draw. Throttur Reykjavik has been scoring at a rate of 2.83 goals per game away from home against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.17 goals. Grindavik, on the other hand, has struggled at home, scoring 1.67 goals per game against stronger opponents and conceding 2.33 goals. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%. The model's selection is the Away win, with a probability of 47%. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.4%. The home side's win probability is 29%, the draw probability is 24%, and the away side's win probability is 47%.

Results analysis

Grindavik's 2-1 win over Throttur Reykjavik extends their recent run of success, having come off a win and boasting a strong home form. However, the real story here is the upset, as the pre-match favourite, Throttur Reykjavik, failed to deliver, with the model's selection, an away win, coming up short. The model's call was wrong, as Throttur Reykjavik was predicted to win with a 48% probability. The model's selection, an away win, had a 48% chance of occurring, but it didn't. The model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 86.4%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grindavik win✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.92
Edge
+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
1xBet
5.17
Pinnacle
5.17
Bet365
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.16
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.46
Dafabet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Throttur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.51
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.53

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrindavikGrindavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D20W00D11D45L21W00D02L10W14LA·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07A·AFT07/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.431.092.181.212.58
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.142.730.752.251.363.00
vs Weaker (7)1.431.572.002.001.001.25
Clean sheet %17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-707L40W30W31W22D12L10W51W41W11DH·FH 06/02H·BRE13/02H·FYL05/03H·VIK28/03A·IBV04/04H·BRE13/05H·VÖL18/07A·LEI23/07H·AFT29/07A·GRO08/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.772.121.812.291.71
vs Stronger (5)2.201.602.251.752.001.00
vs Similar (20)2.102.002.182.002.002.00
vs Weaker (5)2.601.001.000.003.001.25
Clean sheet %13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
@ 1.13+4.8%
Under 1.5
13.6%
@ 5.00-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.3%
@ 1.46+3.2%
Under 2.5
33.7%
@ 2.49-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.5%
@ 2.15+1.4%
Under 3.5
55.5%
@ 1.62-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.9%
@ 1.54+7.3%
No
33.1%
@ 2.28-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.53
No
BetVictor
2.38
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 7.60+4.7%
1-2
9.2%@ 7.18+3.2%
2-1 ✓
6.9%@ 13.99+3.8%
2-2
6.7%@ 12.02+3.2%
0-2
6.2%@ 8.17+1.0%
1-3
5.9%@ 9.85+1.6%
0-1
5.5%@ 8.48+0.4%
2-3
4.4%@ 16.23+1.7%
Grindavik goals ↓
Throttur Reykjavik goals →
01234
04.2%5.5%6.2%4.0%2.0%
13.9%10%9.2%5.9%2.9%
23.5%6.9%6.7%4.4%2.1%
31.7%3.4%3.3%2.1%1.0%
40.6%1.2%1.2%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grindavik goals (down), columns = Throttur Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Grindavik is 0.60 points worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Grindavik is 1.25 goals worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Grindavik is 0.83 goals worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrindavikGrindavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D01L33D11D00D01L00D04LA·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07A·AFT07/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.470.551.450.371.47
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.451.640.501.500.431.71
vs Weaker (7)0.431.000.671.330.250.75
Clean sheet %23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W10W10W10W01L00D20W30W01LH·FH 06/02H·BRE13/02H·FYL05/03H·VIK28/03A·IBV04/04H·BRE13/05H·VÖL18/07A·LEI23/07H·AFT29/07A·GRO08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.880.750.500.50
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.750.750.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.750.701.000.820.440.56
vs Weaker (5)0.600.200.000.000.750.25
Clean sheet %53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrindavikGrindavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D10W12L10W00D01L10W10WA·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07A·AFT07/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.550.730.841.11
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.681.090.250.750.931.29
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.330.670.750.50
Clean sheet %50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L20W20W21W12L11D10W31W11D10WH·FH 06/02H·BRE13/02H·FYL05/03H·VIK28/03A·IBV04/04H·BRE13/05H·VÖL18/07A·LEI23/07H·AFT29/07A·GRO08/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.131.251.061.791.21
vs Stronger (5)1.600.801.501.002.000.00
vs Similar (20)1.351.301.181.181.561.44
vs Weaker (5)2.000.801.000.002.251.00
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.4%1.13
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-+4.8%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
GRI wins
1
Draws
5
TR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik · H/A from GRI
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/25HGRI Vs Throttur Reykjavik1-2
18/05/25AThrottur Reykjavik Vs GRI2-4
08/02/25AThrottur Reykjavik Vs GRI3-2
29/08/24HGRI Vs Throttur Reykjavik2-2
30/06/24AThrottur Reykjavik Vs GRI1-0
31/08/23AThrottur Reykjavik Vs GRI5-0
30/06/23HGRI Vs Throttur Reykjavik1-2

GrindavikGrindavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AAfturelding Vs GRI4-1
29/07/26HGRI Vs Leiknir R.1-0
24/07/26AVölsungur Vs GRI2-0
18/07/26HGRI Vs IR Reykjavik0-0
14/07/26AGrotta Vs GRI1-2
10/07/26ANjardvik Vs GRI5-4
13/05/26AIA Akranes Vs GRI1-1
06/04/26HGRI Vs Keflavik0-0
28/03/26AEllidi Vs GRI0-2
07/03/26AKA Akureyri Vs GRI0-0

Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AGrotta Vs TR1-1
29/07/26HTR Vs Afturelding4-1
23/07/26ALeiknir R. Vs TR1-5
18/07/26HTR Vs Völsungur1-0
13/05/26HTR Vs Breidablik1-2
04/04/26AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs TR2-2
28/03/26HTR Vs Vikingur Olafsiik3-1
05/03/26HTR Vs Fylkir3-0
13/02/26HTR Vs Breidablik4-0
06/02/26HTR Vs FH hafnarfjordur0-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grindavik
Grindavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.06
HomeLWDDW1.20
AwayDLWLL0.97
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%27%
AVG goals4.204.004.33
Over 1.5 %92%85%97%
Over 2.5 %76%80%73%
Over 3.5 %60%65%57%
Scored1.741.751.73
Conceded2.462.252.60
BTTS64%70%60%
Clean Sheet14%20%10%
Corners---
Cards---
Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.68
HomeWWLWW1.71
AwayLWDWD1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%54%45%
AVG goals3.964.213.64
Over 1.5 %90%93%86%
Over 2.5 %82%89%73%
Over 3.5 %60%71%45%
Scored2.222.362.05
Conceded1.741.861.59
BTTS80%79%82%
Clean Sheet12%14%9%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding920
67%
2.2
3013+17
4.8
100%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1003.31.4
-
2NjardvikNjardvik918
67%
2.0
2217+5
4.3
89%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.9
-
3Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik816
62%
2.0
2211+11
4.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.4
-
4FylkirFylkir916
56%
1.8
2517+8
4.7
100%
89%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.9
-
5VölsungurVölsungur915
56%
1.7
1417-3
3.4
89%
56%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
6GrindavikGrindavik1014
40%
1.4
1522-7
3.7
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
7HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur813
50%
1.6
2516+9
5.1
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.12.0
-
8IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik813
50%
1.6
1313+0
3.2
75%
62%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.6
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.89
38%
1.1
1514+1
3.6
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.8
-
10GrottaGrotta98
22%
0.9
1416-2
3.3
89%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
11VestriVestri86
25%
0.8
821-13
3.6
88%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.6
-
12ÆgirÆgir70
0%
0.0
632-26
5.4
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.94.6
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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