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Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 29/08/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Vs
41%
28%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away victory. The odds are 41% for Grobiņa, 28% for a draw and 31% for BFC Daugavpils, making the home side the most likely outcome. A modest 2.7 goals are expected, with the most probable total of two goals carrying a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability, reflecting the teams’ similar strengths.

Grobiņa, playing at home, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against comparable opposition, while BFC Daugavpils, on the road, averages 1.14 scored and only 0.71 conceded. Recent form shows Grobiņa struggling after three straight defeats, whereas BFC Daugavpils has just drawn and is still solid defensively.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3%) and Under 5.5 (94.1%).

Results analysis

Grobiņa’s recent win over BFC Daugavpils kept the home side’s form streak alive, and the Pythia model’s favourite - Home win - was spot on as the final score read 1-0. The model had given the home side a 41% chance of victory, and the prediction was correct. Every suggested pick was accurate: Under 7.5 (99.3%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.9%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%) hit, and Under 5.5 (94.1%) hit. The match confirmed the model’s selections across the board.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grobiņa win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.10
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betano
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.38
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.69
Marathonbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
1xBet
3.44
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.05
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
2.20
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.10

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D22D00D10W31W02L22D04L16L13LH·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.901.141.290.622.44
vs Stronger (8)0.503.621.002.000.204.60
vs Similar (15)1.001.601.291.430.751.75
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.000.501.000.67
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D12L13L13L31W40W01L21W20W00DH·SUP25/10H·FK 02/11A·MET09/11A·RĪG30/06H·FK 04/07A·OGR19/07A·AUD26/07H·FS 01/08H·TUK08/08A·SUP22/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.671.931.861.191.50
vs Stronger (5)0.803.400.504.001.003.00
vs Similar (22)1.591.182.001.451.180.91
vs Weaker (3)2.332.334.002.001.502.50
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
@ 1.23+1.9%
Under 1.5
23.2%
@ 3.65-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.79-0.4%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.92+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
BetVictor
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
SBO
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 3.03-1.3%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.32+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
2.97
Under
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.66+0.6%
No
43.8%
@ 2.08-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.14
BetVictor
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.10+6.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.75+4.5%
1-0 ✓
8.5%@ 9.17+3.8%
0-0
7.8%@ 10.65+3.8%
1-2
7.5%@ 7.90+2.1%
2-0
7.2%@ 14.39+4.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 7.45+1.2%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.72+1.9%
Grobiņa goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
07.8%7.0%5.1%2.1%0.7%
18.5%13%7.5%3.1%1.0%
27.2%8.9%5.6%2.3%0.7%
33.5%4.4%2.7%1.1%0.4%
41.3%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Grobiņa is 0.62 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Grobiņa is 0.36 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa is 1.70 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 0.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grobiņa or Draw✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.60
Edge
+12.4%
41%
28%
31%
covers Grobiņa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Grobiņa or BFC Daugavpils✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.9%
41%
28%
31%
covers Grobiņa + BFC Daugavpils
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or BFC Daugavpils✗ Miss
58.6%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
-11.5%
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + BFC Daugavpils
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.31

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
@ 1.34+7.9%
Under
22.8%
@ 3.02-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
2.86
Pinnacle
2.83
Grobiņa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.5%
@ 2.62+8.4%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.42-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.51
Unibet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.36
Grobiņa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.6%
@ 6.55+4.6%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.07-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Grobiņa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 10.50-2.5%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.50
Under
Bet365
1.02
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.2%
@ 1.20-5.5%
Under
28.8%
@ 3.94+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.01-10.6%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.71+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.75
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.63
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 4.39-7.9%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.16+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.75
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.12
BFC Daugavpils over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 8.95-6.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Bet365
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Grobiņa, so a minus line means Grobiņa give that many goals of a start and BFC Daugavpils receive them. At -1, Grobiņa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grobiņa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grobiņa)Actual: BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa -2
8.1%
@ 17.00+2.6%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 8.50+1.8%
BFC Daugavpils +2
79.2%
@ 1.11-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (Grobiņa)Actual: Draw
Grobiņa -1
20.8%
@ 7.05+8.1%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 4.88+2.2%
BFC Daugavpils +1
58.6%
@ 1.30-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.60
Bet365
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.25
Handicap +1 (Grobiņa)Actual: Grobiņa
Grobiņa +1
69.3%
@ 1.65+16.8%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 3.67-6.4%
BFC Daugavpils -1
13.5%
@ 3.62-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.54
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Unibet
3.25
Away
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.30
Handicap +2 (Grobiņa)Actual: Grobiņa
Grobiņa +2
86.5%
@ 1.22+11.7%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 5.97-6.2%
BFC Daugavpils -2
4.5%
@ 9.05-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.10

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L00D10W20W00D02L00D04L01LH·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.570.860.310.94
vs Stronger (8)0.122.000.331.670.002.20
vs Similar (15)0.530.670.711.000.380.38
vs Weaker (7)0.570.140.500.000.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L01L10W10W01L10W00D00DH·SUP25/10H·FK 02/11A·MET09/11A·RĪG30/06H·FK 04/07A·OGR19/07A·AUD26/07H·FS 01/08H·TUK08/08A·SUP22/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.790.710.380.75
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.501.000.331.33
vs Similar (22)0.500.550.820.640.180.45
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.001.001.501.50
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.33-2.0%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 3.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
William Hil
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.04
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.61-3.3%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.41+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Under
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Unibet
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 6.57-4.0%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.65
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
BetVictor
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.7%
@ 2.24-1.3%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.56+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.09
Under
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 8.10-2.0%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
7.60
Under
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.4%
@ 1.82+0.9%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.86-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.76
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 5.83-0.8%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.08+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
5.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W00D00D11D02L20W04L12L12LH·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.000.570.430.311.50
vs Stronger (8)0.381.620.670.330.202.40
vs Similar (15)0.470.930.570.430.381.38
vs Weaker (7)0.430.430.500.500.330.33
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L01L12L21W30W00D11D20W00DH·SUP25/10H·FK 02/11A·MET09/11A·RĪG30/06H·FK 04/07A·OGR19/07A·AUD26/07H·FS 01/08H·TUK08/08A·SUP22/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.931.141.140.810.75
vs Stronger (5)0.402.200.003.000.671.67
vs Similar (22)1.090.641.180.821.000.45
vs Weaker (3)1.001.003.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 3.94-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
1xBet
3.96
William Hil
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 2.01-3.8%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.70+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 4.33-4.8%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.17+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.0%
@ 1.84-2.7%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.82+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.75
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.50-1.7%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.10+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
4.90
Under
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.07
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.6%
@ 1.61-1.4%
Under
44.4%
@ 2.14+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.10
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 4.06-2.4%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.18+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
3.92
Under
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals98.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.9%1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
---+4.2%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.0%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals96.2%1.03
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
---+6.5%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals96.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals95.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.594.1%1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
--+3.0%✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals93.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+2.5%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals90.7%1.02
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
---+2.0%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals89.9%1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
BetVictor
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+4.0%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals87.0%1.16
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.12
--+7.9%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap86.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
---+11.7%✓ Hit
Under 4.585.9%1.10
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-+1.8%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals85.1%1.08
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
---+0.8%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals85.0%1.10
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.07
---+1.7%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals83.6%1.17
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-+4.8%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals81.4%1.07
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
---4.6%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals79.9%1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
---+2.4%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap79.2%1.11
Bet365
1.11
-----4.4%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals78.6%1.20
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-+1.9%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals77.2%1.34
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.28
-+7.9%✓ Hit
Over 1.576.8%1.23
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+1.9%✗ Miss
Home or Away72.1%1.25
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-0.9%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals71.2%1.20
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
---5.5%✗ Miss
Under 3.570.9%1.32
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+1.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
GRO wins
0
Draws
5
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from GRO
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO3-2
26/06/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO3-2
04/05/25HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
11/03/25HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils3-2
14/09/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO4-0
27/06/24HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils3-0
07/05/24HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils1-3
16/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO2-0

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26AFK Liepaja Vs GRO3-1
10/08/26ARīgas FS Vs GRO6-1
02/08/26ARiga Vs GRO4-0
27/07/26HGRO Vs Ogre United2-2
20/07/26ASuper Nova Vs GRO2-0
05/07/26HGRO Vs Tukums3-1
23/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO0-1
20/11/25HGRO Vs JDFS Alberts0-0
09/11/25HGRO Vs Auda2-2
02/11/25HGRO Vs Riga1-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26ASuper Nova Vs BD0-0
08/08/26HBD Vs Tukums2-0
01/08/26HBD Vs FS Jelgava2-1
26/07/26AAuda Vs BD1-0
19/07/26AOgre United Vs BD0-4
04/07/26HBD Vs FK Liepaja3-1
30/06/26ARīgas FS Vs BD3-1
09/11/25AMetta / LU Vs BD3-1
02/11/25HBD Vs FK Liepaja1-2
25/10/25HBD Vs Super Nova2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.80
HomeDDDWD1.12
AwayWLLLL0.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%28%12%
AVG goals2.842.842.84
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored0.901.240.56
Conceded1.941.602.28
BTTS48%60%36%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.32
HomeDLWWW1.62
AwayLLWLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals3.243.502.96
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %42%38%46%
Scored1.481.731.21
Conceded1.761.771.75
BTTS64%62%67%
Clean Sheet24%23%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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