The model favours a Grobiņa victory, with a 47 % chance of a home win, 26 % for a draw and 27 % for FS Jelgava. The expected total is 3.0 goals, but the most likely total is two, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1 at 12 %. Grobiņa’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while FS Jelgava, on the road, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9 %), Under 5.5 (91.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.1 %), Home +2 handicap (88.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (86.2 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.4 %). Recent form hints at a tough start for Grobiņa after three straight defeats, while FS Jelgava comes off a win. The overall shape suggests a competitive match with a slight edge for the hosts.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grobiņa win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.14
1.21
0.62
2.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.62
1.00
2.00
0.20
4.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.29
1.29
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
0.71
1.21
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.77
0.50
1.50
1.20
2.20
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.14
0.50
0.50
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
Grobiņa goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.6%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.0%
12%
7.6%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.1%
6.2%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.6%
5.0%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Grobiņa is 0.14 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Grobiņa and FS Jelgava are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa is 0.86 goals worse than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grobiņa or Draw
69.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Grobiņa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa or FS Jelgava
73.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Grobiņa + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FS Jelgava
57.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Draw + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
80.6%
Under
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grobiņa, so a minus line means Grobiņa give that many goals of a start and FS Jelgava receive them. At -1, Grobiņa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grobiņa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -2
9.5%
Draw -2
13.3%
FS Jelgava +2
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -1
22.7%
Draw -1
20.2%
FS Jelgava +1
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +1
69.1%
Draw +1
16.6%
FS Jelgava -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.2%
FS Jelgava -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.86
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.29
0.64
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.92
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
Under 1.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.64
0.36
0.31
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.71
0.29
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.00
0.25
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.0%
Under 1.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Grobiņa and FS Jelgava have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Grobiņa and FS Jelgava have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Grobiņa and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Grobiņa and FS Jelgava have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Ogre United
Tukums