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Grobiņa vs Ogre United Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-2
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Vs
46%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Grobiņa a 46% win probability against Ogre United in the Latvia: Virsliga on 2026-07-27, with 26% for the draw and 28% for Ogre United. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (81%).

Results analysis

Grobiņa finished 2-2 against Ogre United (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 26% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grobiņa win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W00D05L11D22D00D10W31W02LA·MET26/09H·TUK04/10H·SUP18/10A·RĪG26/10H·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.431.191.000.641.93
vs Stronger (6)0.503.171.002.000.004.33
vs Similar (11)1.271.451.501.171.001.80
vs Weaker (13)0.850.621.000.430.670.83
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W10W00D11D12L30W10W04L21W04LH·RIG20/09H·SMI27/09H·RĪG04/10H·JDF18/10A·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.072.640.641.941.44
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (9)2.001.113.000.251.201.80
vs Weaker (19)2.581.002.780.892.401.10
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
0-1
5.4%
Grobiņa goals ↓
Ogre United goals →
01234
06.1%5.4%4.2%1.8%0.6%
17.4%12%7.1%3.1%1.0%
27.2%9.4%6.1%2.6%0.8%
34.1%5.3%3.4%1.5%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = Ogre United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.60
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
Grobiņa and Ogre United are level in average points per game (both 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.20
Rīgas FS
2.40
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
Grobiņa and Ogre United are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.40
Rīgas FS
0.60
Auda
0.60
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa and Ogre United are level in goals conceded per game (both 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D03L01L02L00D10W20W00DA·MET26/09H·TUK04/10H·SUP18/10A·RĪG26/10H·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.620.620.430.71
vs Stronger (6)0.172.000.331.670.002.33
vs Similar (11)0.730.640.830.830.600.40
vs Weaker (13)0.540.080.570.000.500.17
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W00D00D00D10W10W03L00D01LH·RIG20/09H·SMI27/09H·RĪG04/10H·JDF18/10A·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.431.290.140.560.69
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.780.671.250.000.401.20
vs Weaker (19)1.050.261.440.220.700.30
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D02L10W20W00D00D11D02LA·MET26/09H·TUK04/10H·SUP18/10A·RĪG26/10H·RIG02/11H·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.560.380.211.21
vs Stronger (6)0.331.170.670.330.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.820.670.330.401.40
vs Weaker (13)0.310.540.430.430.170.67
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D11D12L20W00D01L21W03LH·RIG20/09H·SMI27/09H·RĪG04/10H·JDF18/10A·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.631.360.501.380.75
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.220.441.750.250.800.60
vs Weaker (19)1.530.741.330.671.700.80
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (24)
€13m
AUD (16)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (9)
€6m
AUD (7)
€2m
BD (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€2m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€5m
AUD (9)
€2m
BD (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
GRO wins
0
Draws
0
OU wins

Head-to-head

Grobiņa vs Ogre United · H/A from GRO
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26ASuper Nova Vs GRO2-0
05/07/26HGRO Vs Tukums3-1
23/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO0-1
20/11/25HGRO Vs JDFS Alberts0-0
09/11/25HGRO Vs Auda2-2
02/11/25HGRO Vs Riga1-1
26/10/25ARīgas FS Vs GRO5-0
18/10/25HGRO Vs Super Nova0-0
04/10/25HGRO Vs Tukums1-0
26/09/25AMetta / LU Vs GRO0-1

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HOU Vs BFC Daugavpils0-4
06/07/26ASuper Nova Vs OU1-2
30/06/26AFK Liepaja Vs OU4-0
08/11/25AMārupe Vs OU0-1
01/11/25HOU Vs Skanste3-0
25/10/25ARiga FC II Vs OU2-1
18/10/25HOU Vs JDFS Alberts1-1
04/10/25HOU Vs Rīgas FS II0-0
27/09/25HOU Vs Smiltene1-0
20/09/25HOU Vs Riga Mariners3-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL0.78
HomeDDDDW1.08
AwayLWLWL0.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%28%12%
AVG goals2.822.882.76
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored0.881.240.52
Conceded1.941.642.24
BTTS46%60%32%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.76
HomeWDDWL2.25
AwayWLWLW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals3.343.383.31
Over 1.5 %86%83%88%
Over 2.5 %70%71%69%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored2.082.501.69
Conceded1.260.881.62
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet36%46%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga515
100%
3.0
162+14
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6253.20.4
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS513
80%
2.6
123+9
3.0
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.6
-
3BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils713
57%
1.9
126+6
2.6
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja612
67%
2.0
137+6
3.3
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
5AudaAuda510
60%
2.0
63+3
1.8
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2021.20.6
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova57
40%
1.4
65+1
2.2
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
7Ogre UnitedOgre United64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
9FS JelgavaFS Jelgava63
17%
0.5
411-7
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
10TukumsTukums73
14%
0.4
515-10
2.9
86%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.1
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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