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Grobiņa vs Ogre United Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Vs
68%
19%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Grobiņa’s recent win over BFC Daugavpils fuels the model’s confidence in a home victory, reflected in a 68% probability for a Grobiņa win. The Virsliga side’s balanced 1.29 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, combined with Ogre United’s weaker away record - averaging 1.43 goals scored but conceding 2.0 - underscores the venue advantage. The model predicts an average of 3.5 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Grobiņa, carrying a 9.4% chance. The probabilities for the match outcome are 68% home win, 19% draw, and 13% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 7.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (95.1%), Under 6.5 (93.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.0%), Over 1.5 (87.7%), and Home or Draw (86.7%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as they are not provided.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grobiņa win
68.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United win
13.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D00D10W31W02L22D04L16L13L10WH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.871.141.210.622.44
vs Stronger (8)0.503.621.002.000.204.60
vs Similar (15)1.001.531.291.290.751.75
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.000.501.000.67
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W10W04L21W04L22D14L23L03LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.302.070.932.131.67
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.003.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)1.571.571.711.141.432.00
vs Weaker (14)2.860.712.710.433.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.0%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.9%
3-0
7.5%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
4-1
4.9%
Grobiņa goals ↓
Ogre United goals →
01234
03.6%2.3%1.6%0.6%0.1%
16.4%8.3%4.0%1.4%0.4%
29.0%9.4%5.0%1.7%0.5%
37.5%7.9%4.1%1.4%0.4%
44.7%4.9%2.6%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = Ogre United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Grobiņa is 0.43 points better than Ogre United in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Grobiņa is 0.14 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa is 0.43 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grobiņa or Draw
86.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Grobiņa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa or Ogre United
81.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Grobiņa + Ogre United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ogre United
31.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Draw + Ogre United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Grobiņa, so a minus line means Grobiņa give that many goals of a start and Ogre United receive them. At -1, Grobiņa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grobiņa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -2
27.2%
Draw -2
19.9%
Ogre United +2
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -1
47.2%
Draw -1
21.0%
Ogre United +1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +1
86.8%
Draw +1
8.4%
Ogre United -1
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +2
95.2%
Draw +2
3.5%
Ogre United -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D10W20W00D02L00D04L01L00DH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.500.860.310.94
vs Stronger (8)0.122.000.331.670.002.20
vs Similar (15)0.470.670.571.000.380.38
vs Weaker (7)0.570.140.500.000.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W03L00D01L20W14L21W01LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.930.270.800.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)0.710.710.860.290.571.14
vs Weaker (14)1.070.211.140.141.000.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D00D11D02L20W04L12L12L10WH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.640.360.311.50
vs Stronger (8)0.381.620.670.330.202.40
vs Similar (15)0.530.870.710.290.381.38
vs Weaker (7)0.430.430.500.500.330.33
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W00D01L21W03L02L00D02L02LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.701.130.671.330.73
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.860.860.860.860.860.86
vs Weaker (14)1.790.501.570.292.000.71
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals97.8%-------
Under 7.597.1%-------
Home +2 handicap95.2%-------
Under 6.593.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals91.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.0%-------
Over 1.587.7%-------
Home or Draw86.8%-------
Home +1 handicap86.8%-------
Under 5.585.1%-------
Home or Away81.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals75.8%-------
Away under 1.5 goals71.7%-------
Under 4.571.6%-------
Home over 1.5 goals71.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Grobiņa and Ogre United have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Grobiņa and Ogre United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Grobiņa and Ogre United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Grobiņa and Ogre United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
GRO wins
1
Draws
0
OU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grobiņa vs Ogre United · H/A from GRO
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26HGRO Vs Ogre United2-2

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
21/08/26AFK Liepaja Vs GRO3-1
10/08/26ARīgas FS Vs GRO6-1
02/08/26ARiga Vs GRO4-0
27/07/26HGRO Vs Ogre United2-2
20/07/26ASuper Nova Vs GRO2-0
05/07/26HGRO Vs Tukums3-1
23/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO0-1
20/11/25HGRO Vs JDFS Alberts0-0
09/11/25HGRO Vs Auda2-2

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HOU Vs Rīgas FS0-3
22/08/26HOU Vs FS Jelgava2-3
09/08/26ARiga Vs OU4-1
27/07/26AGrobiņa Vs OU2-2
19/07/26HOU Vs BFC Daugavpils0-4
06/07/26ASuper Nova Vs OU1-2
30/06/26AFK Liepaja Vs OU4-0
08/11/25AMārupe Vs OU0-1
01/11/25HOU Vs Skanste3-0
25/10/25ARiga FC II Vs OU2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.86
HomeDDWDW1.24
AwayWLLLL0.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%32%12%
AVG goals2.802.762.84
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored0.901.240.56
Conceded1.901.522.28
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.64
HomeDWLLL2.00
AwayWLWDL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.423.503.35
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored2.022.381.69
Conceded1.401.121.65
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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