Grobiņa’s recent 1-0 win over BFC Daugavpils gives them a brief lift, but the Pythia model still sees Riga as the clear favourite, rating an away win at 63% versus 15% for a home victory and 22% for a draw. The model’s pick is an away win, driven by Riga’s strong away form: they average 2.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against weaker opponents, while Grobiņa at home struggles, conceding twice as many as they score against stronger sides. The expected total of 3.1 goals is modest, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Riga, with a 10.2% probability. The match is projected to see 2 goals on average, with a 22% chance of that exact total. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away +2 handicap (94.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.3%) and Draw or Away (84.9%). All selections carry their own probabilities, and the home win, draw and away win percentages are 15%, 22% and 63% respectively.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grobiņa win
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga win
58.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.14
1.21
0.62
2.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.62
1.00
2.00
0.20
4.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.29
1.29
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.43
0.87
2.83
0.42
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.9%
Under 2.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
7.5%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
2-1
5.4%
Grobiņa goals ↓
Riga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
7.5%
8.8%
6.1%
3.1%
1
3.7%
10%
9.9%
6.8%
3.5%
2
2.6%
5.4%
5.6%
3.8%
2.0%
3
1.0%
2.0%
2.1%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = Riga goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Grobiņa is 1.29 points worse than Riga in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Grobiņa is 1.86 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa is 1.43 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grobiņa or Draw
41.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Grobiņa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa or Riga
77.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Grobiņa + Riga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga
80.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Draw + Riga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 3.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grobiņa, so a minus line means Grobiņa give that many goals of a start and Riga receive them. At -1, Grobiņa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grobiņa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -2
2.2%
Draw -2
5.3%
Riga +2
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa -1
7.5%
Draw -1
11.6%
Riga +1
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +1
41.9%
Draw +1
22.1%
Riga -1
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grobiņa)
Grobiņa +2
63.9%
Draw +2
17.9%
Riga -2
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.86
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.39
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.64
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.64
0.36
0.31
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.71
0.29
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.87
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.48
1.83
0.25
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Grobiņa's squad is €13m less valuable than Riga's (€3m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Grobiņa's attack is €6m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Grobiņa's midfield is €2m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Grobiņa's defence is €5m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €6m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums