Grobiņa are favoured to win against Tukums, with a 45 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 27 % chance of a Tukums victory. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1, which carries a 13.2 % probability. Grobiņa’s home form shows they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Tukums, playing away, average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded to similar teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.1 % and Under 3.5 goals at 71.7 %. The home win percentage is 45 %, the draw percentage 28 % and the away win percentage 27 %. All these figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition or additional commentary.
Results analysis
The final score was 3-1, confirming the model’s call of a home win. Grobiņa’s recent form, after three straight defeats, was a bright spot, while Tukums struggled with two consecutive losses. The model picked Home win with a 45% probability, and it proved correct. Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.1% chance, hit as the match produced four goals. Under 3.5, projected at 71.7%, missed as the total exceeded that threshold. The most likely score of 1-1 (13.2%) and 1-0 (9.3%) were not realized, but the 2-1 (9.2%) came close. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, delivering a decisive home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grobiņa win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
1.07
1.00
0.60
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
3.17
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.33
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.16
1.30
0.80
0.67
1.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.73
1.38
1.75
0.86
1.71
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.62
1.43
2.71
0.67
2.50
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
Grobiņa goals ↓
Tukums goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.6%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Riga
2.67
Rīgas FS
2.33
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
Grobiņa is 0.24 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.17
Rīgas FS
2.50
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
Grobiņa is 0.45 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.60
Riga
0.83
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
Rīgas FS
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
Grobiņa is 0.86 goals worse than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.70
0.50
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.56
0.88
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.38
0.86
1.57
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.29
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.53
0.33
0.20
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.30
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.14
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.23
0.57
1.14
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.79
0.71
0.71
0.00
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Ogre United
FS Jelgava