Recent form offers a narrative: Groningen have slipped into a 2-game losing streak after a 2-3 loss to Fortuna Sittard, while Twente arrive on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Cambuur 4-1. The model’s most divergent view is the prediction of an away win, a 41% chance that outweighs the 33% home win and 26% draw. The expected goal total sits at 3.1, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% chance. Groningen’s home form shows 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Twente’s away record is 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded versus similar teams. The model offers several selections: Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), and Away under 3.5 goals (91.5%). Each selection carries its own probability, with edges noted where present.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Groningen win
32.6%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.23
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Pinnacle
3.32
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.73
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
1xBet
3.82
BetVictor
3.80
Twente win
41.5%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 2.04
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
Dafabet
2.09
1xBet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.64
1.29
1.31
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.20
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.43
1.44
1.33
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.23
2.08
0.77
2.18
1.59
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
0.00
1.40
2.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
1.15
2.38
0.88
1.80
1.60
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.09
1.50
0.75
3.00
1.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.14+0.6%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 5.16-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
5.51
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.51-2.3%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.46+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 2.26-4.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.62+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
@ 1.46-0.7%
No
37.2%
@ 2.54+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
No
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 7.22+5.6%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.08+3.3%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.56+3.5%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.61+2.2%
0-1
6.4%@ 10.19+2.0%
0-2
6.2%@ 11.83+2.3%
0-0
5.6%@ 14.98+2.6%
1-0
5.5%@ 13.12+2.0%
Groningen goals ↓
Twente goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.4%
6.2%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.5%
12%
8.9%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.8%
6.4%
3.5%
1.5%
3
2.3%
3.8%
3.1%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Groningen goals (down), columns = Twente goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Groningen is 0.33 points worse than Twente in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Groningen is 0.34 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Groningen is 0.17 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Groningen is 3.7 percentage points worse than Twente in terms of average possession (50% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Groningen
For 4.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Twente
For 7.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.7 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.5
3.4
3.5
3.3
20.7
20.3
21.1
vs Stronger (18)
8.7
9.9
7.7
3.1
3.4
2.8
21.1
20.9
21.2
vs Similar (31)
11.0
11.5
10.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
20.6
20.1
21.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
50%
54%
46%
44%
50%
38%
50%
42%
58%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
56%
50%
62%
50%
58%
42%
This opponent (Twente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.5
3.1
3.8
20.7
19.6
21.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.9
8.0
12.6
3.4
3.0
3.6
22.3
23.0
21.9
vs Similar (19)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.0
3.2
4.7
20.8
18.6
22.8
vs Weaker (20)
9.2
9.6
8.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
19.6
19.0
20.1
% over line
43%
33%
50%
42%
36%
46%
40%
38%
42%
% under line
57%
67%
50%
58%
64%
54%
60%
62%
58%
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.9%
@ 1.64+10.1%
Under 9.5
33.1%
@ 2.15-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.8%
@ 2.15+2.4%
Under 3.5
54.2%
@ 1.65-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.9%
Under 21.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Groningen or Draw
58.5%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.75
Edge
+4.8%
33%
26%
41%
covers Groningen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Groningen or Twente
74.1%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
-1.1%
33%
26%
41%
covers Groningen + Twente
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Twente
67.4%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-3.8%
33%
26%
41%
covers Draw + Twente
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Groningen over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
@ 1.24+1.8%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.65-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Betano
3.65
Groningen over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
@ 2.25+0.8%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.60-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Groningen over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
@ 5.01-0.8%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.14+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Groningen over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
@ 12.12-2.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Twente over/under 0.5
Over
80.8%
@ 1.13-1.2%
Under
19.2%
@ 5.16+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Twente over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
@ 1.71-5.7%
Under
51.0%
@ 2.06+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Twente over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
@ 3.22-5.9%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.31+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Twente over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
@ 6.90-4.8%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Groningen, so a minus line means Groningen give that many goals of a start and Twente receive them. At -1, Groningen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Groningen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Groningen)
Groningen -2
5.8%
@ 14.00-0.7%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 9.00-0.3%
Twente +2
84.4%
@ 1.09+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Handicap -1 (Groningen)
Groningen -1
15.6%
@ 6.39+1.5%
Draw -1
17.1%
@ 5.11-0.5%
Twente +1
67.4%
@ 1.32-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Handicap +1 (Groningen)
Groningen +1
58.5%
@ 1.74+6.8%
Draw +1
19.6%
@ 4.01-2.8%
Twente -1
21.8%
@ 3.48-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Handicap +2 (Groningen)
Groningen +2
78.2%
@ 1.25+6.2%
Draw +2
12.8%
@ 5.77-2.8%
Twente -2
9.1%
@ 7.21-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Unibet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.80
0.20
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.85
0.38
0.71
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.88
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.25-1.0%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 3.58+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.60
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.21-2.7%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.61+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 4.88-6.0%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.15+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Unibet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.4%
@ 2.00-1.0%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.74+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Groningen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
@ 6.04-4.7%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.09+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Groningen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.00-6.2%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Twente over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.7%
@ 1.68-2.6%
Under
47.3%
@ 2.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Twente over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.3%
@ 4.37-4.9%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.17+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Twente over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 9.75-5.8%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.93
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
1.20
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.90
0.78
0.67
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.77
1.23
0.38
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.69
1.50
0.38
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.82
0.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.0%
@ 1.14+0.3%
Under 0.5
18.0%
@ 5.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.6%
@ 1.72-5.7%
Under 1.5
51.4%
@ 2.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.3%
@ 3.20-7.6%
Under 2.5
78.7%
@ 1.30+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.4%
@ 1.68+0.4%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.06-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Groningen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
@ 4.34-4.8%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.18+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Groningen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 9.25-6.7%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Twente over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.7%
@ 1.47-3.9%
Under
40.3%
@ 2.56+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Twente over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
@ 3.11-7.8%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.32+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Twente over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
@ 7.70-6.5%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.05+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+2.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.8%
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
+3.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+4.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-
+1.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-
+4.8%
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+0.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+0.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
-1.2%
Under 4.5
79.9%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
+4.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.30
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+7.6%
Home +2 handicap
78.2%
1.25
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+6.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.32
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
+7.8%
Over 8.5 corners
77.5%
1.36
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
+9.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
77.1%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
+5.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
1.24
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+1.8%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-1.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-1.0%
Under 4.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Twente
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Pjaca57%
Max Bruns50%
Younes Taha50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Daouda Weidmann33%
Ruud Nijstad20%
Robin Pröpper14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Rots33%
Robin Pröpper29%
Ramiz Zerrouki29%
Younes Taha25%
Wout Weghorst17%
Daouda Weidmann17%
Sondre Ørjasæter17%
Aske Adelgaard17%
Marko Pjaca0%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Max Bruns0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daouda Weidmann50%
Sondre Ørjasæter50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Marko Pjaca14%
Bart van Rooij14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Daan Rots0%
Max Bruns0%
Younes Taha0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Taha50%
Daouda Weidmann50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Marko Pjaca29%
Max Bruns17%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Ramiz Zerrouki0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Groningen's squad is €54m less valuable than Twente's (€32m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Groningen's attack is €22m less valuable than Twente's (€12m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Groningen's midfield is €8m less valuable than Twente's (€6m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Groningen's defence is €25m less valuable than Twente's (€14m vs €39m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur