Groningen are tipped to win, a 57% chance that the hosts will come away with the victory, while a draw sits at 25% and a Willem II win is only 19%. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.7% chance. Groningen, playing at home against a team of similar strength, normally score 1.44 goals and concede 1.33, whereas Willem II, on the road, average 1.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home +2 handicap (93.2%), Under 5.5 (93.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.2%), Under 25.5 fouls (88.9%) and Under 5.5 cards (88.2%). Groningen’s recent form shows two straight defeats, last match 2-3 at home, while Willem II have come off a draw, 2-2 away.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Groningen win
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Willem II win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.64
1.29
1.31
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.20
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.43
1.44
1.33
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.41
1.29
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.61
1.04
1.44
1.12
1.83
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
6.8%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
5.2%
Groningen goals ↓
Willem II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.6%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.7%
12%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.3%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Groningen goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Groningen is 0.23 points better than Willem II in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Groningen is 0.08 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Groningen is 0.56 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.90).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Groningen or Draw
81.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
18%
covers Groningen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Groningen or Willem II
75.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
18%
covers Groningen + Willem II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Willem II
42.9%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Willem II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Groningen over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Groningen, so a minus line means Groningen give that many goals of a start and Willem II receive them. At -1, Groningen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Groningen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Groningen)
Groningen -2
16.0%
Draw -2
17.9%
Willem II +2
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Groningen)
Groningen -1
33.9%
Draw -1
23.2%
Willem II +1
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Groningen)
Groningen +1
81.5%
Draw +1
11.7%
Willem II -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Groningen)
Groningen +2
93.2%
Draw +2
4.9%
Willem II -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.80
0.20
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.53
0.53
1.15
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.43
0.56
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.93
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
1.20
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.90
0.78
0.67
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.88
0.76
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.61
0.88
0.62
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
BrynjĂłlfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
BrynjĂłlfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
BrynjĂłlfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
BrynjĂłlfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Willem II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser GĂĽrbĂĽz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser GĂĽrbĂĽz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser GĂĽrbĂĽz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser GĂĽrbĂĽz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Groningen's squad is €19m more valuable than Willem II's (€32m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Groningen's attack is €8m more valuable than Willem II's (€12m vs €4m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Groningen's midfield is €2m more valuable than Willem II's (€6m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Groningen's defence is €10m more valuable than Willem II's (€14m vs €5m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →