In the upcoming match between Grotta and Njardvik, recent form suggests a closely contested encounter. Njardvik is on a 3-game winning run, while Grotta is coming off a draw. This storyline sets the stage for a high-scoring match, as the model predicts an expected total of 3.5 goals.
Grotta's home form against stronger opponents has seen them score an average of 1.45 goals and concede 1.82. In contrast, Njardvik's away form against weaker opponents has seen them score 1.0 goals and concede 0.67. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.2%.
The model predicts a home win, with a probability of 44%. The draw percentage is 24%, while the away win percentage is 32%. The model's selection is the home win. In addition, the model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 87.2%.
Results analysis
Njardvik's four-game winning streak continued as they stunned the pre-match favourite, Grotta, with a 1-4 away win. This result extends Njardvik's winning run, while Grotta's recent form has been patchy, having come off a defeat. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with only a 44% probability of success. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of a home win also came with a 32% probability of an away win. The model's selection of a home win was also the only option that did not hit. The model's selection of a home win was also the only option that did not hit. The model's selection of a home win did not hit, while the model's selection of an over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 87.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grotta win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.25
Edge
+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Betano
3.30
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.73
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.87
Dafabet
3.85
10Bet
3.85
Njardvik win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.89
Edge
-15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Dafabet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grotta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.97
1.80
2.00
1.27
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
2.25
1.50
1.90
0.83
2.83
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.69
1.50
2.50
1.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.63
2.73
1.47
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
2.26
1.91
2.69
1.54
1.70
2.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
@ 1.10+3.3%
Under 1.5
12.8%
@ 5.72-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.40+1.7%
Under 2.5
32.4%
@ 2.70-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.0%
@ 2.01-0.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
@ 1.71+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
888Sport
2.05
BetVictor
2.02
Under
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.6%
@ 1.39+2.7%
No
31.4%
@ 2.71-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.40
No
Betfair
2.80
1xBet
2.78
BetVictor
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.50+4.5%
2-1
8.7%@ 10.58+4.6%
1-2
7.4%@ 7.87+2.0%
2-2
7.0%@ 9.77+2.6%
3-1
5.4%@ 19.90+3.3%
2-0
5.4%@ 19.81+3.2%
1-0
4.8%@ 14.59+1.9%
3-2
4.4%@ 19.51+2.2%
Grotta goals ↓
Njardvik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
1
4.8%
10%
7.4%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.4%
5.4%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.6%
2.6%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grotta goals (down), columns = Njardvik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Grotta is 1.11 points worse than Njardvik in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Grotta is 0.89 goals worse than Njardvik in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 2.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Grotta is 0.11 goals better than Njardvik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grotta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.33
0.67
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.00
2.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.83
1.15
0.77
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grotta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grotta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.47
1.07
1.53
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.69
1.00
1.40
0.33
2.17
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.23
1.00
2.00
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.40
0.80
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.09
1.54
0.77
0.80
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grotta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.2%
1.10
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+3.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Grotta and Njardvik have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Grotta and Njardvik have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Grotta and Njardvik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Grotta and Njardvik have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Afturelding
Throttur Reykjavik
Fylkir
Völsungur
Grindavik
HK Kopavogur
IR Reykjavik
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir