The clash between Guimaraes and SC Braga is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home side Guimaraes, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 4.0, while SC Braga, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.18 and concedes 1.18. The expected total goals sit at 2.9, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 34% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 39% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.3%, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.1%. Other selections such as Over 21.5 fouls (98.7%), Over 23.5 fouls (96.7%), Over 25.5 fouls (92.7%), Over 2.5 cards (90.2%), Over 3.5 cards (78.2%) and Over 21.5 fouls (98.7%) are also listed with their respective probabilities.
Results analysis
Guimaraes were on a losing streak, their last five ending in a defeat, while SC Braga remained unbeaten in their last five. The final score of 0-5 confirmed the model’s away win pick, and the probability of 39% for an away victory was correct. The expected total of 2.9 goals was far exceeded, with five goals scored. The model’s suggested picks performed as follows: Over 1.5 hit at 79.3%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 72.1%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.6%, while Over 21.5 fouls, Over 23.5 fouls, Over 25.5 fouls, Over 2.5 cards, and Over 3.5 cards all missed, with probabilities of 98.7%, 96.7%, 92.7%, 90.2%, and 78.2% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Guimaraes win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Braga win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.60
1.57
1.43
1.25
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.33
0.50
4.00
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.64
1.18
1.75
1.00
1.50
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.23
2.44
1.00
1.21
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.29
1.00
2.00
1.33
2.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
2.09
0.91
2.92
0.67
1.18
1.18
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.3%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
Guimaraes goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.3%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.6%
13%
8.7%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.3%
8.0%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Guimaraes is 0.94 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 2.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Guimaraes is 0.85 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Guimaraes is 0.79 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guimaraes
For 5.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.4 · Against 15.8 · Total 33.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 19.5 · Total 37.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
12.2
9.8
2.2
2.0
2.4
32.6
33.1
32.2
vs Stronger (11)
8.4
10.0
7.3
1.8
1.8
1.8
34.8
39.5
31.7
vs Similar (5)
15.0
-
15.0
2.2
0.0
3.7
36.5
-
36.5
vs Weaker (34)
11.2
12.8
9.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
31.3
31.5
31.1
% over line
73%
90%
58%
34%
33%
35%
91%
90%
92%
% under line
27%
10%
42%
66%
67%
65%
9%
10%
8%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.6
2.1
2.0
2.2
34.4
35.2
33.3
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
9.0
10.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
32.4
29.0
34.7
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (40)
9.3
9.4
9.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
34.9
36.5
32.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
32%
31%
33%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
68%
69%
67%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benfica
11.8
Feirense
11.5
Chaves
11.5
Sporting CP
11.5
Estoril
11.0
Guimaraes
10.9
Pacos Ferreira
10.8
FC Porto
10.2
Boavista
9.8
Moreirense
9.7
Setubal
9.5
Tondela
9.5
SC Braga
9.5
Aves
9.4
Portimonense
9.4
Belenenses
9.4
Maritimo
9.2
Rio Ave
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.0
Rio Ave
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.5
FC Porto
5.1
Setubal
5.1
Guimaraes
5.0
Boavista
4.9
Moreirense
4.8
SC Braga
4.8
Tondela
4.8
Maritimo
4.7
Portimonense
4.7
Estoril
4.7
Aves
4.7
Belenenses
4.6
Sporting CP
4.4
Chaves
4.4
Benfica
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.7
Setubal
35.2
SC Braga
34.4
Belenenses
33.0
Rio Ave
32.9
Maritimo
32.7
Guimaraes
32.6
Moreirense
32.1
Estoril
32.0
Aves
31.8
Sporting CP
31.5
Tondela
31.4
Pacos Ferreira
30.8
Portimonense
30.7
Chaves
30.6
Boavista
30.4
FC Porto
29.6
Benfica
28.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.3%
Under 9.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.2%
Under 3.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
98.7%
Under 21.5
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.71
0.71
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.91
0.55
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.25
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
1.04
0.48
1.50
0.50
0.55
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.50
0.50
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.50
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.43
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
1.04
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.64
0.73
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Guimaraes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
SC Braga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Guimaraes's squad is €119m less valuable than SC Braga's (€46m vs €165m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Guimaraes's attack is €19m less valuable than SC Braga's (€22m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Guimaraes's midfield is €44m less valuable than SC Braga's (€11m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Guimaraes's defence is €56m less valuable than SC Braga's (€12m vs €68m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →