Guingamp’s defensive solidity is the story here, with a league average of 0.73 goals conceded at home against opponents of similar strength, while Nantes have been leaking 1.33 away. The model points to a tight, low-scoring affair, the most probable total being two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6 % chance. Home win is the favoured result, with a 41 % probability, draw 32 % and away win 28 %. The expected total is 2.2 goals. The match is projected to be a defensive stalemate: both sides have modest scoring averages (Guingamp 1.0, Nantes 0.83) and the model’s selections reflect this. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.7 % with a 5 % edge) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7 % with a 6 % edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Guingamp, failed to deliver as the match finished 3-3, a draw that leaves the model’s call incorrect. The model had given the home side a 42% chance of victory, while the probability of a draw was 32%. The upset was highlighted by the fact that both teams had come off a 3-3 draw in their previous fixtures, with Guingamp’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw.” Every suggested pick was addressed: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%; Under 6.5 hit at 99.3%; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%; Under 5.5 missed at 97.7%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2%. The final score of 3-3 confirms the draw and the model’s prediction of a home win was wrong.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Guingamp win✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.77
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.00
Dafabet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.80
SBO
2.78
Draw✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.28
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Nantes win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 38.0% · @ 2.45
Edge
-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.65
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.55
Dafabet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Guingamp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
0.92
0.92
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.11
1.00
0.73
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.83
1.20
1.93
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
2.07
1.57
2.29
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.50
0.88
1.62
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
-
-
3.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.28-8.2%
Under 1.5
35.0%
@ 3.49+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.65
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.8%
@ 1.91-12.8%
Under 2.5
63.2%
@ 1.87+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Under
SBO
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.4%
@ 3.26-11.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
@ 1.31+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.1%
@ 1.69-10.8%
No
55.9%
@ 2.06+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.93+6.9%
1-0
13.0%@ 8.68+7.8%
0-0
12.8%@ 9.96+8.3%
0-1
9.2%@ 7.98+3.7%
2-0
8.9%@ 13.54+5.6%
2-1
8.2%@ 9.42+3.4%
1-2
6.0%@ 8.79+1.0%
0-2
4.9%@ 11.51+1.0%
Guingamp goals ↓
Nantes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.2%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guingamp goals (down), columns = Nantes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Guingamp is 0.80 points worse than Nantes in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Guingamp is 0.58 goals worse than Nantes in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Guingamp is 0.70 goals worse than Nantes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guingamp
For 4.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 15.4 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
For 5.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.8 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guingamp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.8
8.5
4.3
4.6
3.9
27.4
26.8
28.2
vs Stronger (5)
9.2
10.0
8.0
4.6
4.7
4.5
24.4
25.7
22.5
vs Similar (43)
9.1
9.8
8.5
4.3
4.7
4.0
27.8
26.9
28.7
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
-
1.5
3.0
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
34%
42%
26%
62%
71%
54%
85%
83%
87%
% under line
66%
58%
74%
38%
29%
46%
15%
17%
13%
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.2
4.4
4.3
4.4
26.6
25.8
27.4
vs Stronger (25)
10.0
9.5
10.4
4.6
4.6
4.5
25.7
24.2
27.2
vs Similar (23)
8.8
9.0
8.6
4.3
4.1
4.6
27.7
27.5
27.9
vs Weaker (2)
5.5
-
5.5
2.5
-
2.5
25.5
-
25.5
% over line
47%
44%
50%
66%
69%
62%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
34%
31%
38%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Saint Etienne
9.5
Metz
9.5
Grenoble
9.5
PAU
9.4
Montpellier
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Clermont Foot
9.2
Sochaux
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.5
Annecy
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.7
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.4
PAU
4.4
Annecy
4.2
Sochaux
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Reims
4.1
Rodez
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Metz
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Annecy
28.5
Boulogne
28.3
Laval
28.3
Guingamp
27.7
Dijon
27.6
Clermont Foot
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Nantes
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.4
Sochaux
26.1
Dunkerque
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.7
PAU
25.6
Reims
24.7
Metz
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
@ 1.92-6.4%
Under 9.5
57.9%
@ 1.81+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.54+4.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.22-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Under
Superbet
2.22
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.7%
Under 21.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Guingamp or Draw✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 61.9% · @ 1.51
Edge
+12.1%
42%
32%
26%
covers Guingamp + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.62
SBO
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Guingamp or Nantes✗ Miss
68.5%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-3.4%
42%
32%
26%
covers Guingamp + Nantes
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Draw or Nantes✓ Hit
57.6%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
-8.7%
42%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Nantes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
William Hil
1.44
1xBet
1.43
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Guingamp over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.2%
@ 1.30-0.2%
Under
28.8%
@ 3.24+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Guingamp over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.4%
@ 2.49-2.1%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.49+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Guingamp over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.0%
@ 5.94-2.6%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.10+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Guingamp over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 14.42-2.8%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Nantes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.1%
@ 1.26-13.6%
Under
39.9%
@ 3.53+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.71
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Nantes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.5%
@ 2.29-17.2%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.57+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Nantes over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
6.6%
@ 5.26-11.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.13+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Nantes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 11.62-6.7%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Guingamp, so a minus line means Guingamp give that many goals of a start and Nantes receive them. At -1, Guingamp must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Guingamp win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Guingamp)Actual: Nantes
Guingamp -2
6.7%
@ 11.36-1.1%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 7.21+0.5%
Nantes +2
80.4%
@ 1.11+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Guingamp)Actual: Nantes
Guingamp -1
19.6%
@ 5.65+3.8%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 4.38+2.5%
Nantes +1
57.6%
@ 1.40-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Unibet
5.25
Draw
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Away
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Handicap +1 (Guingamp)Actual: Guingamp
Guingamp +1
74.0%
@ 1.51+14.9%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 4.07-5.3%
Nantes -1
9.5%
@ 4.68-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
3.80
Away
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Handicap +2 (Guingamp)Actual: Guingamp
Guingamp +2
90.5%
@ 1.15+13.1%
Draw +2
7.0%
@ 6.46-6.8%
Nantes -2
2.5%
@ 10.20-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guingamp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.54
0.46
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.59
0.64
0.27
0.56
0.81
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.07
0.71
1.29
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
-
-
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.37-2.4%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.88+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Under
Unibet
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Superbet
2.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.76-0.1%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.40+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Superbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.4%
@ 7.09-3.8%
Under 2.5
90.6%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.8%
@ 2.11-5.1%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.65+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Guingamp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.9%
@ 6.90-2.5%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Guingamp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.17-2.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.9%
@ 2.02-5.1%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.72+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 6.31+0.1%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.65
Superbet
6.30
Betano
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 17.33-4.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guingamp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.46
0.71
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.52
0.36
0.45
0.69
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.29
1.07
0.25
1.25
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.23-3.2%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.83+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.85
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.08-5.3%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.69+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.0%
@ 4.47-4.8%
Under 2.5
84.0%
@ 1.18+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.7%
@ 1.79-1.9%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.91+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.88
Guingamp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 4.95-7.2%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.14+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Guingamp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 13.42-4.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.8%
@ 1.71-6.3%
Under
52.2%
@ 2.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.62
Under
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.8%
@ 4.52-3.7%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.16+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 11.33-3.2%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
93.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
1.15
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+13.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.6%
1.31
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
1.29
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
1.57
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
+17.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.0%
1.51
10Bet
1.62
SBO
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
+12.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
1.51
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
+14.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.4%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.4%
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
-0.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Guingamp
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donatien Gomis25%
Albin Demouchy25%
Stanislas Kielt25%
Samir Ben Brahim25%
Erwin Koffi0%
Tom Ducrocq0%
Dylan Louiserre0%
Teddy Averlant0%
Adrián Ortolá0%
Florent Sanchez Da Silva0%
Amine Hemia0%
Amadou Samoura0%
Vimoj Muntu0%
Tanguy Ahile0%
Jérémie Matumona0%
Jasser Chamakh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donatien Gomis50%
Albin Demouchy50%
Tom Ducrocq25%
Dylan Louiserre25%
Adrián Ortolá25%
Jasser Chamakh25%
Erwin Koffi0%
Teddy Averlant0%
Florent Sanchez Da Silva0%
Amine Hemia0%
Amadou Samoura0%
Stanislas Kielt0%
Vimoj Muntu0%
Tanguy Ahile0%
Jérémie Matumona0%
Samir Ben Brahim0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amine Hemia33%
Jérémie Matumona33%
Teddy Averlant25%
Erwin Koffi0%
Tom Ducrocq0%
Dylan Louiserre0%
Donatien Gomis0%
Adrián Ortolá0%
Florent Sanchez Da Silva0%
Albin Demouchy0%
Amadou Samoura0%
Stanislas Kielt0%
Vimoj Muntu0%
Tanguy Ahile0%
Samir Ben Brahim0%
Jasser Chamakh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stanislas Kielt50%
Teddy Averlant25%
Erwin Koffi0%
Tom Ducrocq0%
Dylan Louiserre0%
Donatien Gomis0%
Adrián Ortolá0%
Florent Sanchez Da Silva0%
Amine Hemia0%
Albin Demouchy0%
Amadou Samoura0%
Vimoj Muntu0%
Tanguy Ahile0%
Jérémie Matumona0%
Samir Ben Brahim0%
Jasser Chamakh0%
Nantes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Guingamp's squad is €71m less valuable than Nantes's (€11m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Guingamp's attack is €27m less valuable than Nantes's (€3m vs €31m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Guingamp's midfield is €12m less valuable than Nantes's (€4m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Guingamp's defence is €31m less valuable than Nantes's (€3m vs €34m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon