Gzira United are the clear favourites, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Birzebbuga win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, with a 12.2% probability. Gzira’s home form shows 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded against similarly strong opposition, while Birzebbuga’s away record is 1.4 for and 1.4 against. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.1%), Home +2 handicap (93.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.5%) and Under 4.5 (85.8%). Gzira’s recent five matches ended with four losses, while Birzebbuga also suffered two defeats in their last five.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gzira United win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gzira United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.18
0.88
1.23
2.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.54
1.36
0.86
1.30
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.88
1.31
2.00
1.38
1.77
1.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.33
2.22
1.22
1.56
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.80
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
19% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
Gzira United goals ↓
Birzebbuga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.1%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.1%
5.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gzira United goals (down), columns = Birzebbuga goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Gzira United is 0.48 points better than Birzebbuga in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Gzira United is 0.39 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Gzira United is 0.58 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gzira United or Draw
81.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Gzira United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United or Birzebbuga
74.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Gzira United + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Birzebbuga
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gzira United over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gzira United, so a minus line means Gzira United give that many goals of a start and Birzebbuga receive them. At -1, Gzira United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gzira United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gzira United)
Gzira United -2
14.6%
Draw -2
17.5%
Birzebbuga +2
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gzira United)
Gzira United -1
32.1%
Draw -1
23.5%
Birzebbuga +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gzira United)
Gzira United +1
81.0%
Draw +1
12.1%
Birzebbuga -1
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gzira United)
Gzira United +2
93.1%
Draw +2
5.1%
Birzebbuga -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gzira United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.53
0.35
0.23
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.42
0.85
0.62
1.08
0.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.56
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gzira United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.65
0.53
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.04
0.79
0.50
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.88
1.15
0.77
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.89
1.33
0.67
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Gzira United and Birzebbuga have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Gzira United and Birzebbuga have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Gzira United and Birzebbuga have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Gzira United and Birzebbuga have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans