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Gzira United vs Floriana Result & Analysis

Date: 30/04/2026
Time: 19:00
Final 0-1
Gzira United
Gzira United
Vs
22%
33%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The Pythia model signals a tight, low-scoring affair, with the defensive figures setting the tone. Gzira United, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has averaged only 0.5 goals for and 1.0 against, while Floriana, on the road to a weaker side, has been prolific, scoring 1.78 and conceding just 0.56. The model therefore favours an away win, the single most likely result, with a 45 % chance. A 2-goal total is expected, and the most probable scoreline is 0-1, which carries a 15.6 % probability.

The probabilities for the match outcome are 22 % for a home win, 33 % for a draw, and 45 % for an away win. The model’s selection for the total is Under 3.5, with an 86.6 % chance of hitting that line. Gzira United’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Floriana is on a three-game winning streak. The final result will likely confirm the model’s pick, with Floriana securing a 0-1 victory.

Results analysis

After a run of three defeats, Gzira United’s home form has stalled, while Floriana arrive on a three-game winning streak. The model predicted an away win with a 45% chance, and the result confirmed that call. The final score was 0-1, an away victory that matched the model’s forecast. The only suggested pick was Under 3.5 goals, with an 86.6% probability, and it hit as the match produced a single goal. The model’s prediction of the most likely total of 2 goals was not realised, but the favoured outcome and the key selection both came through, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia system.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gzira United win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✓ Hit
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L24L10W11D10W12L12L10W12L00DH·VAL13/02A·NAX17/02H·MOS22/02H·ZAB28/02H·HIB07/03A·SLI14/03A·VAL12/04A·HAM15/04A·MAR19/04H·NAX26/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.231.330.731.001.73
vs Stronger (7)0.571.000.501.000.601.00
vs Similar (23)1.351.301.460.691.202.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D41W11D10W22D10W31W20W14LH·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03A·SLI07/03A·BIR14/03A·NAX11/04A·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.871.611.111.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.911.361.001.750.670.33
vs Weaker (19)1.950.582.100.601.780.56
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.4%
Under 1.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.0%
Under 2.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.4%
Under 3.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.4%
No
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
15.6%
0-0
15.5%
1-1
14.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
4.9%
2-0
4.1%
Gzira United goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
015%16%10%4.0%1.2%
19.5%14%7.7%3.0%0.9%
24.1%4.9%2.9%1.2%0.3%
31.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
40.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gzira United goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Gzira United is 0.83 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 2.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Gzira United is 0.37 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Gzira United is 0.52 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D10W00D02L00D00D00D00DH·VAL13/02A·NAX17/02H·MOS22/02H·ZAB28/02H·HIB07/03A·SLI14/03A·VAL12/04A·HAM15/04A·MAR19/04H·NAX26/04
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.600.330.270.73
vs Stronger (7)0.290.570.500.000.200.80
vs Similar (23)0.480.520.620.380.300.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D10W00D21W10W21W00D11DH·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03A·SLI07/03A·BIR14/03A·NAX11/04A·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.400.780.500.920.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.360.500.500.330.00
vs Weaker (19)1.050.421.000.501.110.33
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L23L10W01L10W10W12L10W12L00DH·VAL13/02A·NAX17/02H·MOS22/02H·ZAB28/02H·HIB07/03A·SLI14/03A·VAL12/04A·HAM15/04A·MAR19/04H·NAX26/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.730.400.731.00
vs Stronger (7)0.290.430.001.000.400.20
vs Similar (23)0.870.780.850.310.901.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W01L10W01L00D10W20W03LH·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03A·SLI07/03A·BIR14/03A·NAX11/04A·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.830.610.580.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.451.000.501.250.330.33
vs Weaker (19)0.890.161.100.100.670.22
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
GU wins
2
Draws
3
FLO wins

Head-to-head

Gzira United vs Floriana · H/A from GU
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26HGU Vs Floriana1-2
12/09/25AFloriana Vs GU1-1
08/03/25HGU Vs Floriana0-3
27/09/24AFloriana Vs GU2-1
03/05/24HGU Vs Floriana3-1
21/01/24AFloriana Vs GU0-1
18/02/23AFloriana Vs GU1-1
16/10/22HGU Vs Floriana1-0

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26HGU Vs Naxxar Lions0-0
19/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs GU2-1
15/04/26AHamrun Spartans Vs GU0-1
12/04/26AValletta FC Vs GU2-1
14/03/26ASliema Wanderers Vs GU2-1
07/03/26HGU Vs Hibernians1-0
28/02/26HGU Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-1
22/02/26HGU Vs Mosta1-0
17/02/26ANaxxar Lions Vs GU4-2
13/02/26HGU Vs Valletta FC0-2

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-4
18/04/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC2-0
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3
11/04/26ANaxxar Lions Vs FLO0-1
14/03/26ABirkirkara Vs FLO2-2
07/03/26ASliema Wanderers Vs FLO0-1
01/03/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
22/02/26HFLO Vs Hibernians4-1
18/02/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
15/02/26HFLO Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.34
HomeLWDWD1.52
AwayLLLWL1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%41%30%
AVG goals2.422.072.83
Over 1.5 %68%63%74%
Over 2.5 %46%41%52%
Over 3.5 %20%19%22%
Scored1.081.041.13
Conceded1.341.041.70
BTTS46%37%57%
Clean Sheet32%41%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL2.02
HomeWDWWL1.80
AwayDWDWW2.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%50%70%
AVG goals2.502.472.55
Over 1.5 %76%83%65%
Over 2.5 %50%47%55%
Over 3.5 %26%23%30%
Scored1.581.431.80
Conceded0.921.030.75
BTTS52%53%50%
Clean Sheet40%33%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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