PythiaFootballBETA
The match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Gzira United's recent form taking centre stage. The home side is coming off a defeat, having lost 0-1 to Floriana in their last outing, a result that followed a string of inconsistent performances. Meanwhile, Naxxar Lions have also been struggling, having suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-1 loss to Mosta.
Gzira United is still the favourite to win, with a 54% chance of securing the three points at home. The away win probability stands at 20%, while the draw probability is at 26%. The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 scoreline, which has a 12.4% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Gzira United has averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.85 conceded when playing at home against similar opponents. Naxxar Lions, on the other hand, has averaged 1.07 goals scored and 2.21 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5 (76.4% probability) and Under 3.5 (71.3% probability).
The draw between Gzira United and Naxxar Lions, ending 0-0, extends Gzira's recent winless streak. In a major upset, the home team, who were predicted to win with a 54% probability, failed to capitalize on their form, which has seen them come off a defeat. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of a home win was the pre-match favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a 76.4% probability, while the selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 71.3% probability.
Gzira United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.40 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.73 | 0.64 | 1.44 | 2.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Naxxar Lions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.60 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
| Naxxar Lions goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 11/12/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/04/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/11/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/10/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/02/24 | A | 0-1 |
Gzira United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/02/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
Naxxar Lions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/02/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Floriana | 34 | 74 | 65% | 2.2 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 2.4 | 71% | 47% | 26% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 |  Hamrun Spartans | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 2.3 | 74% | 35% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 |  Marsaxlokk | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 2.5 | 76% | 53% | 21% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 |  Valletta FC | 34 | 54 | 41% | 1.6 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 2.0 | 62% | 26% | 15% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 |  Sliema Wanderers | 32 | 48 | 38% | 1.5 | 37 | 36 | +1 | 2.3 | 72% | 38% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Gzira United | 32 | 43 | 38% | 1.3 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 2.5 | 72% | 44% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 7 |  Hibernians | 32 | 39 | 31% | 1.2 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 2.9 | 78% | 53% | 34% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 |  Birkirkara | 32 | 35 | 25% | 1.1 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 2.0 | 62% | 34% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | Naxxar Lions | 33 | 35 | 27% | 1.1 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 2.8 | 76% | 55% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Zabbar St. Patrick | 34 | 34 | 21% | 1.0 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 2.7 | 82% | 47% | 21% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 |  Mosta | 33 | 29 | 21% | 0.9 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 2.8 | 70% | 48% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 12 |  Tarxien Rainbows | 34 | 25 | 15% | 0.7 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 2.9 | 79% | 56% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |