Halifax are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 26% for Gateshead. The model expects three goals on average, but the most likely total is two, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance, though the final result last week was a 2-0 home win for Halifax. Halifax’s home form shows they score 1.5 goals and concede only 0.38 against similar opposition, while Gateshead’s away form is not listed. The model’s selections include an 87.2% chance of Under 5.5 cards, an 81.0% chance of Over 1.5 goals, and a 74.7% chance of Under 4.5 cards. Halifax’s recent win over Hartlepool and Gateshead’s three-match losing streak suggest a tight contest, but the data favours a Halifax victory.
Results analysis
Halifax’s victory extended their recent run, with the win at home coming after a 1-0 triumph over Hartlepool. The model had picked a Home win with a 49% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Halifax secured a 2-0 result. The expected total of 3.0 goals was not reached, but the most likely scoreline of 2-0 materialised, matching the model’s forecast. All of the model’s selections hit: Under 5.5 cards at 87.2% confidence, Over 1.5 at 81.0%, and Under 4.5 cards at 74.7%. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the favoured outcome and the accuracy of the model’s picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Halifax win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.13
Edge
+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.33
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.16
Edge
-17.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Halifax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.87
1.25
0.56
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.12
1.00
0.75
0.89
1.44
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.54
1.50
0.38
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.71
1.75
1.25
1.33
2.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.6%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.86-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0 ✓
7.8%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
Halifax goals ↓
Gateshead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.1%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.6%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.6%
5.6%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Halifax goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wrexham
2.41
Notts County
2.33
Chesterfield
1.83
Woking
1.78
Barnet
1.61
Boreham Wood
1.57
Bromley
1.54
Southend
1.50
Eastleigh
1.46
Dag and Red
1.37
Oldham
1.33
Halifax
1.33
Gateshead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Solihull
1.26
Dorking
1.24
Altrincham
1.22
Aldershot
1.15
York
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Torquay
1.04
Yeovil
0.87
Scunthorpe
0.74
Maidstone
0.54
Halifax is 0.02 points better than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Notts County
2.54
Wrexham
2.52
Chesterfield
1.76
Barnet
1.63
Woking
1.54
Bromley
1.48
Altrincham
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Dorking
1.46
Aldershot
1.39
Oldham
1.37
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.33
Torquay
1.26
Southend
1.24
Wealdstone
1.24
Eastleigh
1.22
York
1.20
Boreham Wood
1.13
Scunthorpe
1.07
Halifax
1.07
Maidenhead
1.02
Maidstone
0.98
Yeovil
0.76
Halifax is 0.39 goals worse than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Boreham Wood
0.87
Notts County
0.91
Wrexham
0.93
Southend
0.98
Halifax
1.04
Woking
1.04
Chesterfield
1.13
Bromley
1.15
Eastleigh
1.24
Yeovil
1.30
Gateshead
1.35
York
1.37
Oldham
1.39
Solihull
1.43
Maidenhead
1.43
Barnet
1.46
Dag and Red
1.57
Wealdstone
1.57
Aldershot
1.65
Torquay
1.74
Altrincham
1.78
Scunthorpe
1.89
Dorking
1.98
Maidstone
2.26
Halifax is 0.30 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
58%
Wrexham
56%
Boreham Wood
55%
Yeovil
54%
Chesterfield
48%
Solihull
47%
Southend
46%
Maidenhead
46%
Halifax
45%
Dorking
44%
Altrincham
43%
Oldham
42%
Barnet
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Halifax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.25
0.31
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
0.65
0.12
0.50
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.23
0.38
0.12
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.14
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Halifax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Halifax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
1.00
0.25
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
0.47
0.88
0.25
0.56
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.31
1.12
0.25
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.57
1.25
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Halifax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →