The match between Halifax and Gates Head is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. A draw sits at 29% and an away victory at 30%, so the contest is finely balanced. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance. Halifax, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Gates Head, on the road, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 81%, Over 1.5 at 74.1%, Under 3.5 at 74.1% (edge), and Over 2.5 cards at 73.7% (edge). Each selection is presented with its probability, and the home win, draw and away win percentages are explicitly stated.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw surprised everyone, especially after Halifax’s recent win that extended their run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 41% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards at 81% missed, as did its Over 1.5 at 74.1%. However, Under 3.5 at 74.1% hit, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.7% also hit. The match finished level, confirming the model’s call was incorrect. Halifax’s home form shows a win, yet they could not secure the victory, while Gateshead’s away form, after three straight defeats, ended in a stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Halifax win✗ Miss
41.2%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.04
Edge
+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.21
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Halifax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.73
0.93
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.00
1.57
1.14
0.44
0.89
vs Similar (14)
1.57
0.79
1.88
0.75
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.20
1.73
1.20
1.87
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
1.50
1.33
1.38
1.38
1.75
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.94
1.12
2.17
1.17
1.80
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.85-2.9%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.89+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.4%
0-0 ✓
8.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.2%
Halifax goals ↓
Gateshead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.6%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.4%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.8%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.1%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Halifax goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Halifax is 0.09 points worse than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Southend
1.52
Hartlepool
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Halifax is 0.65 goals worse than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Halifax is 0.30 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Halifax is 13.7 percentage points worse than Gateshead in terms of average possession (48% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Halifax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.44
0.57
0.43
0.11
0.44
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.36
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
1.13
0.20
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.12
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.50
1.17
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Halifax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Halifax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
1.33
0.47
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.56
1.00
0.71
0.33
0.44
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
1.62
0.25
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.60
1.00
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.17
0.38
1.25
1.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.00
0.83
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Halifax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Halifax and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Chesterfield
Barnet
Bromley
Altrincham
Solihull
Southend
Aldershot
Oldham
Rochdale
Hartlepool
Eastleigh
Wealdstone
Woking
York
Boreham Wood